Bitcoin’s retreat from its recent record highs has sparked debate over whether the market has already peaked for the 2025 cycle. But analysts argue the $124,500 top is unlikely to mark the end of the bull run, pointing instead to signs of capitulation among weaker hands and resilience among long-term holders.
Technical Indicators Remain Neutral
According to analyst Merlijn The Trader, none of Bitcoin’s 30 widely followed peak indicators are signaling a market top. Metrics such as the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue against historical norms, remain well below the overheated levels seen during previous cycle peaks. Likewise, the MVRV Z-Score, which tracks Bitcoin’s price relative to realized capital inflows, is still in neutral territory.
“Historically, Bitcoin’s bull market tops occur when several of these on-chain tools flash red at once. Right now, every one of them remains neutral,” Merlijn noted.
On-chain data shows that newer Bitcoin investors—those holding for less than a month—are currently sitting on average unrealized losses of around -3.5% and have begun selling. In contrast, the broader short-term holder group, defined as one to six months, remains in profit with average unrealized gains of +4.5%.
“This shakeout is transferring BTC from weak hands to stronger ones with lower cost bases and higher conviction,” analyst CrazzyBlockk explained. “It’s exactly the kind of structural reset that builds support for the next leg higher.”
$70 Million in Longs Liquidated
The latest dip below $111,000 on Binance triggered more than $70 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions. On-chain analyst Amr Taha highlighted the significant drop in open interest and a $1 billion plunge in Binance’s cumulative net taker volume, suggesting aggressive sell-side capitulation.
“With overleveraged buyers flushed out, the market is structurally healthier,” Taha said, adding that the absence of a short squeeze leaves “latent upside potential” if Bitcoin regains key levels and triggers short covering.
Outlook: Correction or Continuation?
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s decline appears consistent with prior bull market corrections, which have typically ranged between 20% and 30%. The latest 12% pullback remains above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $108,000, a level that has historically served as dynamic support during rallies.
A rebound from this support could set Bitcoin on course to retest its all-time high above $125,500 and potentially push toward $150,000 by the end of 2025. However, a breakdown below the 20-week EMA risks a deeper move toward the 50-week EMA near $95,300, a level that has previously marked local bottoms.
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Bitcoin Pullback Tests $124K Peak Narrative, Analysts Eye $150K Target
Bitcoin’s retreat from its recent record highs has sparked debate over whether the market has already peaked for the 2025 cycle. But analysts argue the $124,500 top is unlikely to mark the end of the bull run, pointing instead to signs of capitulation among weaker hands and resilience among long-term holders.
Technical Indicators Remain Neutral
According to analyst Merlijn The Trader, none of Bitcoin’s 30 widely followed peak indicators are signaling a market top. Metrics such as the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue against historical norms, remain well below the overheated levels seen during previous cycle peaks. Likewise, the MVRV Z-Score, which tracks Bitcoin’s price relative to realized capital inflows, is still in neutral territory.
“Historically, Bitcoin’s bull market tops occur when several of these on-chain tools flash red at once. Right now, every one of them remains neutral,” Merlijn noted.
Weaker Hands Capitulate, Long-Term Holders Stay Firm
On-chain data shows that newer Bitcoin investors—those holding for less than a month—are currently sitting on average unrealized losses of around -3.5% and have begun selling. In contrast, the broader short-term holder group, defined as one to six months, remains in profit with average unrealized gains of +4.5%.
“This shakeout is transferring BTC from weak hands to stronger ones with lower cost bases and higher conviction,” analyst CrazzyBlockk explained. “It’s exactly the kind of structural reset that builds support for the next leg higher.”
$70 Million in Longs Liquidated
The latest dip below $111,000 on Binance triggered more than $70 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions. On-chain analyst Amr Taha highlighted the significant drop in open interest and a $1 billion plunge in Binance’s cumulative net taker volume, suggesting aggressive sell-side capitulation.
“With overleveraged buyers flushed out, the market is structurally healthier,” Taha said, adding that the absence of a short squeeze leaves “latent upside potential” if Bitcoin regains key levels and triggers short covering.
Outlook: Correction or Continuation?
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s decline appears consistent with prior bull market corrections, which have typically ranged between 20% and 30%. The latest 12% pullback remains above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $108,000, a level that has historically served as dynamic support during rallies.
A rebound from this support could set Bitcoin on course to retest its all-time high above $125,500 and potentially push toward $150,000 by the end of 2025. However, a breakdown below the 20-week EMA risks a deeper move toward the 50-week EMA near $95,300, a level that has previously marked local bottoms.