US economists predict weak employment rise as Fed rate cut expectations heat up.

[Coin World] On September 1, a survey of top economists by The Wall Street Journal showed that last month's new jobs are expected to be only 75,000, and the unemployment rate may rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a nearly four-year high. Bill Adams, chief economist at United Bank of America, stated that the best scenario for financial markets is that the upcoming employment report shows a moderate rise in employment and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. This would indicate that the economy is not in recession, but also show that the labor market is sufficiently weak to justify a Fed interest rate cut.

On the other hand, the worst-case scenario is that the employment report shows a decline in the number of jobs, a decrease in the labor force participation rate, and a drop in the unemployment rate. This would mean a reduction in labor supply while labor demand is also weakening, which could be a problem the Fed cannot handle.

As the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, investors will once again try to determine when "bad news is good news" and when "bad news is just bad news." In other words, when will weak economic data provide the Fed with more room to cut rates (benefiting the stock market), and when will weak economic data trigger growth fears (detracting from the stock market)? This may come down to why the Fed wants to cut rates and what will happen after the rate cut.