To determine whether a unilateral downward trend is reversing, a comprehensive assessment must be made from four core dimensions: price patterns, Trading Volume, key positions, and indicator signals. A single signal is insufficient to confirm a reversal; multiple signals must resonate.

1. Price pattern: A clear reversal structure has appeared.

Reversal patterns are intuitive signals of market direction changes, commonly seen at the end of a downtrend:

- Bottom reversal patterns: such as "Hammer candlestick" "Morning Star" (small bearish/bullish candle + gap down + large bullish candle covering), "Double Bottom" (bouncing back after two declines to the same low point, forming a W shape), "Head and Shoulders Bottom" (rebounds after a decline, then makes a new low, and finally rebounds to break the neckline, forming a head and shoulders structure).

- Signal for stopping the fall: During the decline, a sudden "large green candle" appears, and the body of the green candle covers the bodies of the previous 1-2 red candles (such as "one green candle engulfs two red candles"), indicating that the buyers have started to actively counterattack, breaking the rhythm of the unilateral decline.

2. Trading Volume:出现“放量止跌”或“量价共振”

Trading volume is the core reflection of capital attitude, and a unilateral fall reversal needs to be accompanied by changes in trading volume:

- Volume Spike Stops the Fall: At the end of a decline, the stock price no longer makes new lows, while the trading volume suddenly increases (doubling compared to the previous few days or reaching a recent peak), indicating that there is significant buying at low levels, absorbing the selling pressure, which is a signal of "capital bottom-fishing."

- Volume and Price Synchronization: When rebounding, the Trading Volume continues to expand, while it shrinks during a fall (i.e., "expanding on the rise, contracting on the fall"), indicating that the buying power is gradually dominating and the market is shifting from "one-sided decline" to "oscillating recovery."

- If the stock price rebounds but the Trading Volume remains low, it is likely a "no-volume rebound" and may easily fall back again, not confirming a reversal.

3. Key Position: Reached support level and stabilized

A unilateral decline will not last indefinitely. The key support level is an important node in the long-short game. Breaking below it will continue the decline, while stabilizing may lead to a reversal.

- Technical Support: Such as previous lows, long-term moving averages (like the 60-day and 120-day moving averages; if the stock price has been falling along the 5-day moving average for a long time, the first time it stands above the 5-day moving average and does not fall back below it), and Fibonacci levels (such as the 0.382 and 0.5 positions of the downward movement).

- Market consensus support: positions such as low industry valuations and major round numbers (like the stock market's 3000 points or key integer price levels in futures) are likely to trigger capital bottom-fishing and form a reversal starting point.

4. Indicator Signal: The technical indicator shows a "bottom divergence"

Divergence in indicators is an important warning for trend reversal, and "bottom divergence" (where price moves in the opposite direction of the indicator) is commonly seen in downtrends:

- MACD Divergence: The stock price continues to hit new lows, but the MACD indicator's "DIF line" is no longer making new lows and is gradually rising, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening and buying power is accumulating.

- RSI Divergence: The stock price hits a new low, but the RSI indicator (such as the 14-day RSI) does not reach a new low simultaneously, and it rebounds from the oversold range (RSI < 30), indicating that after an excessive decline in the market, there is strong demand for a rebound.

- KDJ Divergence: The stock price hits a new low, while the K and D lines of the KDJ indicator do not reach new lows simultaneously, and the J line quickly crosses upwards through the K and D lines from the oversold area (J<0), forming a "golden cross."

Key Reminder: Avoid Misjudgment from Single Signals

In a one-sided downtrend market, there may occasionally be "false reversals" (such as a brief rebound followed by continued decline), which requires attention:

- A reversal requires "multiple signal resonance": for example, when a "double bottom pattern + increased trading volume long bullish candle + MACD bottom divergence + stabilizing above the 60-day moving average" appear simultaneously, the probability of a reversal is much higher than that of a single signal.

- Confirm the validity of the breakout: If a rebound breaks through key resistance levels (such as previous rebound highs or neckline), and does not retrace for 2-3 consecutive periods (such as 2-3 days or 2-3 candlesticks), then it is considered a valid reversal, avoiding false signals of "breakout followed by a fall". #Gate上线Ondo专区现货交易# #非农就业数据来袭# #今日你看涨还是看跌？#