#美联储降息预期升温 #Gate广场创作点亮中秋

Will interest rate cuts exceed expectations! Looking at it from three points!
According to the current news, a 25 basis point rate cut is basically a done deal, and the market's main focus is on two, but there are three points of concern.
1: Did the interest rate cut exceed expectations (25 basis points is a certainty, could it exceed expectations by 50 basis points?)
2: Three spot ETFs will also be listed on Thursday!?? (DOGE, SOL, XRP)
3: After confirming the interest rate cut, who benefits the most regardless of whether it exceeds expectations?
1. Did the interest rate cut exceed expectations: From last month's Powell meeting to the U.S. employment rate and inflation data, everything indicates that an interest rate cut is expected this month. A 25 basis point cut seems almost certain. However, there has been a recent reversal, and we might see a push for a 50 basis point cut. The reasons are as follows:
Recently, S&P expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, lowering the rate to 4% to 4.25%. Recent data from the U.S. has been dismal, with cooling employment figures and persistently high inflation, forcing Powell to lean towards a dovish stance. If there is no rate cut, it could lead to significant turmoil, and the next chairperson could also change. Trump has mentioned several times that he wants to re-elect the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, S&P also expects the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% and possibly cut rates at least once more this year.
Recently, gold has once again broken through its historical high, climbing to a new peak on Tuesday, with spot gold surpassing the $3690 mark. The market is very optimistic. Before Thursday's news, if we take a close look at the trend, the yield curve shows that the movements of gold have already absorbed a significant amount of dovish remarks. The market is betting on interest rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates this time, gold is likely to experience a major drop, a cliff-like decline. On the contrary, if rates are cut, gold is expected to reach a new historical high, breaking through $3700. Another benefit of cutting rates is that it suppresses the dollar.
Today, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated: There is currently no reason to cut interest rates. This is indeed the case; there is no reason not to cut rates. The key is whether the rate cut exceeds expectations. If it exceeds expectations, then the crypto market will usher in a new round of growth. A normal rate cut will cause the market to pull back and then rise again. So we will wait to enter at a low point. If there is no news about a rate cut, there is no need to pay too much attention. We just need to repeat the actions from the September Powell meeting and go long before the rate cut information is released. We will choose based on the results.
2. Sol, DOGE, and XRP will be listed on the ETF this Thursday, coinciding with the interest rate cut, a double benefit, a dual approach? The first two have indicators to follow, but XRP was unexpected. However, their real surge should be in October, and you can learn more about it yourself. Under normal circumstances, there will be a wave of corrections around the time of the ETF listing (as seen with ETH and BTC previously). On the 11th, I am bullish; on the 13th, there was a correction after the post, and by the 14th, most of the long positions had been closed around the peak, choosing to go bearish. The current situation is unclear, and I have just chosen to close my short position and observe. Waiting for the interest rate cut (all of this has been mentioned before).
After confirming the interest rate cut, regardless of whether it exceeds expectations, the biggest beneficiaries besides Bitcoin and Ethereum are the Nasdaq 100 Index (Mag7 + AI sector), as well as small-cap stocks and the financial sector.
The recent submission of a tokenization application by NASDAQ is undoubtedly a clear signal that it plans to tokenize financial assets such as stocks on its platform. This is one of the most mainstream application directions for RWA. (It also proves that asset tokenization is an irreversible major trend, with significant implications ). With the recent rise of the RWA sector and the artificial intelligence sector, this is another major boon for blockchain. It undoubtedly proves that blockchain is one of the trends of the future.
Waiting for the interest rate cut, waiting for the future, quoting a saying: let the bullets fly for a while.