#BtcPriceAnalysis

BTC Price Analysis
Current Technical & Market Structure
BTC recently dropped under $110,000 losing ~5–10% from recent highs. On the chart, it’s moving within a descending channel, facing resistance near $117,000–$118,000, and support zones around $107,000 and $102,000. Momentum indicators (such as RSI) are showing weakening strength, suggesting bulls are losing short-term control.

Key pivot levels to watch:
Support: ~$107,000 → ~$102,000
Resistance: ~$117,000 → ~$118,000+

If BTC can reclaim and close above resistance (~$117-118k) with strong volume, that could reignite bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to hold support may lead to deeper retracements.

Fundamental & Macro Drivers
Institutional and corporate accumulation continues to act as a strong demand anchor, reducing circulating supply and helping stabilize Bitcoin’s price floor. At the same time, monetary policy and inflation trends remain key influences hawkish central bank actions or persistent inflation typically put downward pressure on risk assets, including BTC. Liquidity dynamics also play a crucial role; when more Bitcoin is held off exchanges by long-term holders, circulating supply shrinks, creating potential upward price pressure. Meanwhile, the classic four-year halving cycle is being reconsidered, with some analysts suggesting that the current cycle could extend into 2026 instead of peaking in 2025. Finally, regulatory developments and broader macroeconomic shocks remain significant risks, as negative policy shifts or financial instability could trigger sharp market pullbacks.

Price Outlook & Scenarios
Base / Moderate Scenario
BTC may oscillate sideways to modestly upward between $105,000 – $120,000 in the near term. If bulls can overcome resistance around $117-118k, a push toward $125,000 is possible. If support at ~$107,000 breaks, downside targets include $102,000 and possibly $96,000.

Bullish Scenario
Some firms maintain a $200,000 BTC target for 2025, while other projections suggest $150,000+ is possible if adoption and supply constraints align.

Bearish Scenario
If macro or regulatory pressures intensify, BTC could revisit $90,000 – $100,000. A decisive break below $102,000 would likely deepen the decline.

Model & Research Insights
Machine learning and wavelet-based models have improved medium-term forecast accuracy, outperforming traditional approaches. Stock-to-flow and halving-based models, while still referenced, appear less reliable in today’s more institutionally driven market. Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s cycle is elongating, potentially pushing the peak out to 2026 rather than 2025.

What to Watch
Close above $117-118k with strong volume → bullish confirmation
Drop below $107,000 → risk of deeper downside
On-chain metrics→ exchange outflows and long-term holder accumulation
Macro signals → inflation data, central bank policy changes
Institutional activity → ETF inflows, corporate BTC buys