Why did I choose to increase the position on September 26? Why do I firmly believe that the bull is still here?

I posted before that there was an increase in the position on September 26. At that time, I wasn't sure if it was the bottom, so I can't hype this bull. Even now, Bee Brother can't 100% confirm that there won't be new lows in the short term.

The reason for increasing the position at that time was the firm belief that the bull was still present.

┈┈➤Macroscopic Perspective

This point has been mentioned countless times by Brother Bee.

Historically, there has never been a bull market that appeared at the beginning of a macro rate cut.

◆A bull market may occur in the early stages of interest rate hikes.
Because the initial stage of interest rate hikes is still a period of abundant liquidity. Liquidity begins to tighten, but sentiment and liquidity cannot completely synchronize; sentiment may lag behind. Therefore, even if interest rates have just been raised, the bull market may still be rising.

◆Bull market may also appear at the end of interest rate cuts.
This is the peak period of liquidity easing, and this logic is reasonable.

◆Bull tops may also appear in the middle of interest rate cuts.
Of course, this round may see a bull peak appear in the middle of the interest rate cut, and this possibility cannot be ruled out, because the consensus on the halving cycle and the four-year cycle is indeed very high.

◆How could a bull appear at the beginning of a rate cut?!
However, the US dollar is becoming increasingly loose, and it is just the beginning of the easing. Why is everyone unwilling to hold speculative assets and insists on converting to dollars? Does this logic make sense?

The relationship between liquidity and market conditions is not a historical record; it is a logical relationship.

┈┈➤Halving Cycle

One of the consensus in the cryptocurrency market is the halving cycle, which is a four-year cycle.

According to the four-year cycle expectation, the end of 2025 is a bull market. There are still 3 months left in 2025, so the expectation of a bull top is still there.

┈┈➤ Regulation and Policy

╰┈✦ETF

Currently, there are many crypto ETFs such as SOL, DOGE, XRP in the review stage. The SEC chairman recently publicly stated that he plans to grant innovation exemptions for crypto-related products, allowing crypto products to be issued first and then go through the regulatory process.

In November 2017, the SEC approved BTC futures.
In November 2021, the SEC approved the BTC futures ETF.

First of all, there is no doubt that the current SEC chairman is crypto-friendly.
Secondly, whether these crypto ETFs can pass or not may not even be important, as long as it is expected at this stage, it could stimulate market sentiment.

╰┈✦Trump

Previously, Brother Bee analyzed the positive outlook on RWA, and here is a brief summary again.

Trump → hopes to bring manufacturing back → increase tariffs → curb trade deficit → reduce international output of the dollar → needs stablecoins to export dollars

Trump → Raise the US debt ceiling → Increase the supply of US debt → May cause US debt prices to fall → US debt interest increases → Increase Treasury interest expenses → Need stablecoins to increase demand for US debt → Prevent US debt prices from falling

So Trump hopes for a prosperous cryptocurrency market, which would lead to more demand for USD stablecoins.

This is why Trump issued USD1 and WLFI, to encourage the market, including investors and crypto startup teams. Trump's issuance of tokens is not purely for profit, of course, he certainly wouldn't be polite about making money from it either (.

Of course, whether it's Trump or regulations and policies, they cannot determine the trend of the market. However, with the combined effects of liquidity and the four-year cycle consensus, how could the bull market end?!

┈┈➤Conspiracy Theory

There is also a conspiracy theory here that is somewhat human-centric.

Brother Bee summarizes this logic as - to make it perish, one must first make it go crazy.

If the bull market ends now, without the crazy process, it will be difficult to harvest more.

Of course, this logic is somewhat conspiracy-minded and lacks any evidence.

However, we cannot deny that often, the seemingly conspiratorial logic of interests may actually be the underlying truth.

┈┈➤Written at the end

Interest rates have been cut, but there is no recession. There were some signs of downturn before the rate cuts, but after three cuts, a certain amount of liquidity will gradually be released, which can alleviate the downturn.

So, I can't think of any other bearish news.

On the contrary, ETFs, the change of chair at the Federal Reserve, and the upcoming release of liquidity... the favorable factors will be more abundant.