CME futures gap warns of Bitcoin pullback risks, on-chain data shows holder confidence remains strong

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $112,000. Despite an intraday increase of about 2.4%, the newly emerged futures gap at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) casts a shadow over the short-term trend.

According to analyst DaanCrypto's observation of the data, the current Bitcoin 15-minute chart shows a CME futures gap. If this gap quickly narrows and falls below the key support level of $111,000, the short-term structure will appear even weaker, potentially triggering a new round of rapid pullback.

At the same time, according to analysts from Cryptoquant, the on-chain MVRV ratio has recently stabilized around 2.0, indicating that market sentiment is in a rational range, with neither panic selling nor excessive optimism.

Long-term holders maintain stable positions, effectively tightening circulating supply and building a solid foundation for prices. This on-chain health contrasts sharply with the short-term technical risks.

The technical chart also shows a stalemate between bulls and bears. The daily chart of Bitcoin indicates that the price is rebounding from the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (BOLL), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46, which is neutral to weak, while the downward momentum of the MACD indicator is weakening.

Currently, the key support level for BTC is in the range of 109,000-111,000 USD. If it breaks down, it may test the 200-day moving average around 106,000 USD. On the upside, the 115,000-118,000 USD range constitutes an important resistance zone, and only a successful breakout can provide the momentum to return to historical highs.

In addition, the derivatives market is showing active signals. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin futures trading volume increased by 173% to $3.4 billion; the open interest rose by about 2.59% to $79.4 billion. However, despite the active trading in the short-term derivatives market and the continuous increase in positions, the weighted funding rate did not immediately rise significantly.

Overall, Bitcoin is at a delicate balance point between short-term risks and medium to long-term positivity. Traders need to closely monitor the CME gap filling situation while also leveraging the confidence support provided by the on-chain fundamentals. In addition, near key technical levels, volume cooperation will become an important basis for judging the validity of a breakout.

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