Bitcoin Long-Term Value Outlook: Imagining Wealth of 0.1 Coin Over Twenty-Three Years

Holding 0.1 Bitcoin until the year 2048 (a total of 23 years) is believed to have the potential to achieve financial freedom. Some even suggest that its value in the future could be equivalent to a villa, with 1 Bitcoin possibly comparable to a Siheyuan in Beijing or an old western-style house in Shanghai.

From the perspective of scarcity, Satoshi Nakamoto did not deliberately preserve early Bitcoins, and there have been instances of loss and transfer costs, resulting in a decrease in the actual circulating supply. The scarcity of Bitcoin will continue to be highlighted.

From the perspective of the development cycle, Bitcoin has only been around for a little over ten years, which is still early compared to the thousands of years of history of gold; in the short term, due to the large market capitalization base, it is difficult to see a surge, but in the long term, it will steadily rise, gradually shifting from speculative attributes to investment attributes. In the future, it may attract more countries, institutions, universities, and households to enter the market, and the value space is limitless.
Bitcoin Growth Timeline (2009-2025): Simplified Version

1. 2009: The genesis block was born, with no market value, a pure technical experiment.

2. 2010 (Micro Bull Market): The first pizza transaction set the value, with a year-end market cap of $0.05 million.

3. In 2011 (the first round of bull and bear markets): After breaking the $1 mark, it plummeted due to exchange vulnerabilities, ending the year with a market cap of $3 million.

4. In 2013 (bull market + regulatory bear): first breaking $1000, then falling back due to the FBI shutting down dark web platforms, with a year-end market cap of $1.5 billion.

5. In 2017 (mainstream bull + bubble burst): first breaking 20,000 USD, then crashing due to ICO bubble and China's ban, with a year-end market value of 230 billion USD.

6. 2020-2021 (Institutional Bull + Policy Bear): The price surged to $69,000 due to COVID-19 stimulus, then retraced due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the LUNA crash, ending 2021 with a market capitalization of $82 billion.

7. 2023 (Resilience Recovery): ETF expectations drive recovery to $40,000, year-end market value $800 billion

8. 2024 (Compliance Bull): Spot ETF approval + Fourth halving, market value exceeding $1.2 trillion by year-end

9. 2025 (Oscillating Bull): After reaching a new high of $124,500, it retraces, with a market cap of about $1.7 trillion as of September.