October 2

This week, data has been gradually released. The advance ADP data unexpectedly declined. Does the rate cut not stimulate the market, or does it just need more time to show its effects? The decrease in manufacturing orders raises further questions about what might follow. On the other hand, the government shutdown has officially taken effect, and the two parties still have not found a suitable agreement. Funds have run out. Bitcoin has finished its correction and broken above 118,000, while Ethereum is testing 4,350. Gold retraced after reaching 3,900.

Technically: Structural pressure remains key, the 124590 structure is in effect. With the breakout above 118000, the southward structure at 117800 has ended. A northward structure between 107200-108000 has formed, and the upward movement is not over. A new high is brewing. The pull-up of the medium K-line on the 4-hour chart shows the northward structure is unfolding. The MACD fast and slow lines have crossed again near the zero axis, indicating that bulls still have demand, but the momentum bars are expanding too quickly, warranting caution for a correction.

Survey:

Around 117300, support: 116700, direct sales: 118900-121300-122800

Near 122800 is empty, loss for Zhi: 1123400, direct sales 120000-121300

Technically: The secondary price has not broken through the structural high point like the primary price, indicating a short-term demand that has accumulated and is now being released. The southward structure trend at 4768 has not been compromised; currently, the trend needs to be monitored for a continued upward movement. A breakout above 4330-4350 could lead to opportunities at 4490-4600-4768. On the 4-hour chart, the demand for upward movement is evident, especially the impact of breaking above 4250, indicating that 4500 has already appeared. The MACD fast line continues to rise above the zero axis; although the opening line is a bit fast, the bulls still have room. The momentum bars are showing a slowdown in volume.

Survey:

Near 4335 more, stop loss: 4311, direct sales: 4450-4536-4632-4700

Short position near 4536, stop loss: 4557, direct: 4460-4500

Today's data:

1. 19:30 US Challenger Job Cut Report for September

2. 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 27

3, 22:00 US August Factory Orders MoM

4. 22:30 U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending September 26

5. 22:30 Fed's Logan delivers a speech