Looking back at the performance of the A-share market in September, it showed an overall trend of fluctuating upward movement. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly from 3857 points at the beginning of the month to 3882 points, with a rise of 0.64%, accumulating an increase of 24 points. Although it failed to break through the 4000-point mark as some investors expected, reaching a maximum of only 3899 points, the technology zone still performed remarkably.

From a technical perspective, since September 2022, the May line has broken through the October line, forming a golden cross, which is typically seen as an important signal of a bull market. It is worth noting that in June this year, the Shanghai Composite Index once again showed a golden cross of the May line over the October line, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index only exhibited a similar trend in August, about two months later than the Shanghai Composite Index.

Despite the general optimism in the market regarding the September trend, with some opinions suggesting that the index may aim for 4200 points or even 4500 points, the actual performance appears somewhat weak. I previously pointed out that this year’s market high may be around 4000 points, with 4200 points being the limit; unless there is an unexpected positive development, reaching 4500 points is unlikely.

With the arrival of the fourth quarter, let's turn our attention to the market performance in October. Looking back at the trends of A-shares in October over the years, we can see: a rise of 2.38% in 2014, a significant pump of 10.80% in 2015, a rise of 3.19% in 2016, and a slight rise of 1.33% in 2017. However, in 2018, there was a drop of 7.75%, breaking the consecutive rise pattern. In 2019 and 2020, there were increases of 0.82% and 5.38%, respectively.

These historical data reflect that the A-share market generally showed a pump trend in October, but there were also fluctuations. Investors should fully consider historical trends when formulating investment strategies, while closely monitoring the current economic environment, policy developments, and global market changes to make more rational investment decisions.

Looking ahead, although the market still faces many uncertainties, the A-share market is expected to show a steady and positive trend in the fourth quarter, driven by the continued recovery of the domestic economy and the gradual implementation of various favorable policies. Investors should maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude, focus on high-quality growth stocks and blue-chip stocks with core competitiveness, and manage risks effectively to cope with potential market fluctuations.