Recently, the exchange rate of the US dollar has shown a slight rebound, mainly influenced by several factors. First, the latest interest rate decision meeting of the Federal Reserve has become the focus of the market. Many investors chose to close their short positions after the Federal Reserve announced a further cut of 25 basis points, which has somewhat driven the short-term strengthening of the dollar.

From a technical perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently testing the key resistance level of 99. This area has been touched multiple times in the past few weeks but has not been broken. If the dollar can regain a foothold in the 98.5-99 range, it will create conditions for a push towards the 100 level, which could have significant impacts on other asset classes.

In addition to the impact of monetary policy, the latest economic data has unexpectedly been positive for the US dollar. Bloomberg's US Economic Surprise Index shows that actual economic performance has exceeded market expectations. In particular, the recently released GDP data significantly surpassed expectations, which has somewhat offset the previous market pessimism towards the dollar. Generally speaking, strong performance of US economic data or market expectations of an improvement in the US economy (for example, through further stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve) tend to have a positive impact on the dollar.

The market is still closely watching the upcoming U.S. unemployment rate data. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, unchanged from last month. If the actual data is lower than or in line with this expectation, it is likely to further support a stronger dollar, dispelling market pessimism towards the dollar.

From a macro perspective, only a substantial shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance, or a significant rise in inflationary pressures that triggers market expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, could become key factors driving the movement of the US dollar. This situation may arise in the coming months.

If the US Dollar Index successfully breaks through the 100 mark, it may put pressure on some speculative assets, including various risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the Japanese stock market may also be affected by the strengthening of the dollar, and investors need to closely monitor the interactions between these markets.