Every October, the Bitcoin community welcomes the excitement of "Uptober". This year, as the price of Bitcoin approaches its historical high, the atmosphere is even more intense. Economist Timothy Peterson used the Monte Carlo simulation method to predict the future trend of Bitcoin. According to his analysis, there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will break through $140,000 before the end of October 2025, while there is also a 43% chance it will fall below $136,000.

Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $122,032. To reach the target of $140,000, there is still about a 14.7% increase needed. Peterson emphasized that his prediction is entirely based on real data, excluding the influence of human emotions and biases.

Historical data seems to support this optimistic expectation. According to CoinGlass statistics, October has been the second-best month for Bitcoin performance since 2013, with an average increase of 20.75%. If Peterson's prediction comes true, Bitcoin could indeed hit the $140,000 mark this month.

However, investors still need to be vigilant about potential risks. The cryptocurrency market has always been highly volatile, and the uncertainty of regulatory policies may also have a significant impact on the market. Recently, Bitcoin nearly fell below $120,000, demonstrating the market's fragility.

Moreover, although Bitcoin has been around for 16 years, the identity of its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, remains a mystery. Some speculate that if Satoshi Nakamoto's true identity were revealed, he might even be eligible for a Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. This speculation reflects the important position that Bitcoin holds in the field of financial innovation.

Overall, although October is seen as the golden month for Bitcoin, investors should remain cautious. While enjoying the potential upside rewards, it is also important to keep an eye on market trends and policy changes, and to manage risks appropriately.