The current market situation of Ethereum (ETH) has prompted a lot of investors to think. From a technical perspective, short positions have already undergone a round of liquidation, while long positions are facing the risk of being liquidated. However, the market often tends to favor a few winners, and this herd effect may indicate that a turning point in the market is about to arrive.

Currently, the market fear index is at an extreme fear level of 22, and this extreme sentiment often triggers opportunities for reversal operations. Most people hold a bearish attitude, while a minority are bullish; this divergence may suggest that the market is about to undergo a change.

From a probabilistic perspective, the likelihood of ETH rising next week is approximately 80%, while the probability of it continuing to decline is 20%. Whether for speculation or investment, aligning with the higher probability event is usually a wise choice, although this does not mean there is absolutely no risk.

In terms of personal trading strategies, consider setting the take-profit level at $4000 and the stop-loss level at $3790. If the price falls below $3790, it may indicate a deviation in judgment, and trading should be paused for a day to reassess the market situation. When the price reaches $4000, the market may enter a period of extreme volatility, and exiting to observe might be a more prudent choice.

During periods of fluctuation, it is crucial to pay attention to the strength of support and resistance levels. If it is a washout, you may consider entering near the support level; if it is a trap for long positions, a wait-and-see attitude is required.

Investment decisions need to be based on personal judgment and market analysis. Each investor should develop corresponding strategies according to their risk tolerance and investment objectives.