The Indian Rupee (INR) has seen some slight fluctuations today, with a minor decline against the US Dollar (USD) at the opening, reaching close to the 88.30 mark. Recently, everyone has been focused on the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, as it may bring some noticeable changes to the USD/INR. So, are you all prepared?

Let's talk about the background again. The trade friction between India and the United States seems to have made the outlook for the Indian Rupee uncertain. In August of this year, the United States imposed a 50% tariff on imports from India (partly due to India's procurement of Russian oil and the failure to reach a trade agreement), which directly affected the competitiveness of Indian products in the international market.

The Indian government has not been idle. In an interview, India's Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal stated that the government is closely monitoring the situation and is confident that the situation will return to normal in the future. Additionally, there has been a recent rationalization of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure. Although this tax reform may result in some short-term revenue losses, the minister believes that these losses can be offset by the growth in consumption.

Looking at overseas investors, the pace of foreign capital flow into the Indian stock market has slowed down. Recently, some foreign institutions have reduced their holdings in the Indian stock market, but compared to the situation in July and August of this year, the selling pressure is not as great.

At the same time, the market is closely monitoring the economic dynamics in the United States. On Friday, the US dollar index (DXY) fell slightly to around 98.15. Regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy, most traders have anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, as previous employment data revisions have raised dovish expectations.

As for the NFP report in the United States, those numbers can sometimes look quite interesting. For example, the expected increase in employment for August is close to the previous 73K. Although the unemployment rate may see an increase, the growth rate of wages is slowing.

Then in terms of technical analysis, USD/INR opened near 88.30, and the trend looks quite optimistic, staying above the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating some new upward momentum.

Finally, regarding the issue of the Indian Rupee, among the factors that influence it, crude oil prices, the value of the US dollar, and foreign capital flows play significant roles. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India stabilizes the exchange rate by adjusting interest rates and intervening directly, which can also have a significant impact on the Rupee.

In summary, the Indian Rupee may appear extremely sensitive in the context of observing global situations, and these market dynamics and policy adjustments are like an unending rhythm, constantly affecting its value and direction. What do you think about these changes? Leave a message to chat!