Vanguard could allow Bitcoin ETF trading if BTC surpasses $150k, according to analyst

Sourcecryptopolitan

May 20, 2025 08:10

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, has predicted that asset manager Vanguard is unlikely to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF. In a post on X, Balchunas stated that the firm could eventually allow its clients to trade Bitcoin ETFs through its platform.

According to Balchunas, the demand from Vanguard's clients could force the company to change its position once Bitcoin reaches the range of $150,000 - $200,000.

My opinion: Vanguard will probably never launch a bitcoin ETF. But… I could see them softening their stance and allowing it to be traded on their platform in the next year or two, especially if bitcoin reaches $150k or $200k, they will get tired of customers asking them and their new CEO is one of…

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 19, 2025

Balchunas added that, because the current CEO of Vanguard, Salim Ramji, is also one of the creators of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT could eventually influence his decision to allow it. Ramji led BlackRock's ETF business before moving to Vanguard.

Other experts also seem to agree with Balchunas's opinion. Many previously predicted that Vanguard would eventually offer its users access to a Bitcoin ETF. An analyst noted that Vanguard is likely to gain more exposure to Bitcoin through its VOO ETF once Strategy MSTR joins the S&P 500.

Vanguard stands alone as more institutions embrace Bitcoin

Vanguard's decision not to issue Bitcoin ETFs or allow trading of existing Bitcoin ETFs on its platform makes it unique compared to other asset issuers. The firm claims to focus on proven and reliable products to help investors protect their money, especially during downturns.

However, Bitcoin's consistently strong performance means that many Vanguard users without exposure to the asset are now complaining. Interestingly, some clients are also considering migrating to other brokers that offer access to Bitcoin products.

For example, Fidelity and BlackRock, major competitors of Vanguard, have their own Bitcoin ETFs and allow users to trade other cryptocurrency ETFs on their platforms. Even better, these firms also allow other Bitcoin-focused products with Fidelity trading platforms, providing exposure to Metaplanet stocks.

Meanwhile, if Vanguard eventually changes its mind, it will not be the first traditional institution to make a 180-degree turn on Bitcoin. The investment bank JP Morgan recently announced that it will allow its clients to buy Bitcoin.

JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, announced this move, which marks a complete departure from Dimon's previous criticisms of the crypto industry and Bitcoin, which he considers a Ponzi scheme and a tool for criminals.

Curiously, Dimon's anti-Bitcoin stance remains. He points out that he will never personally buy BTC, but he will not let his personal sentiment prevent JP Morgan clients from accessing it. He stated that he would defend the clients' right to buy Bitcoin just as he would defend a person's right to smoke a cigarette.

Bitcoin stabilizes at $105k while the market seeks a new all-time high

As traditional institutions continue to change their stance on Bitcoin, the flagship crypto asset has risen nearly 3% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. It now seems to have broken out of the $104,000 range after reaching a high of $106,814 today before settling above $105,000.

The positive performance of BTC means it has risen by 11.88% so far this year. Its positive performance has allowed altcoins to see massive gains today, although they pale in comparison to long-term price movements.

It is unclear what is responsible for the recent increase in value, but there are many positive fundamentals supporting it. According to crypto analyst Carmelo Alemán, Bitcoin has accumulated over $906 billion in realized capitalization.

The realized capitalization describes the total amount invested in Bitcoin, which has been on an upward trend for four consecutive weeks. If that trend continues, experts believe that BTC will reach a new ATH.

Realized capitalization of Bitcoin (Source: CryptoQuant)

He said:

“If the trend of increasing Realized Capitalization continues, suggesting ongoing investor confidence in Bitcoin, it is very likely that Bitcoin will surpass its ATH in the near future. This could set the stage for a historic bull market.”

Meanwhile, the net spot volume of Bitcoin in U.S. dollars is now increasing, a sign that selling pressure has decreased and buying activity is on the rise.

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Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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