The ups and downs are too fast, it’s really thrilling. Is there still a bull?

To know if the bull is still around, we first need to understand how this bull market came about.
There is no doubt that it is the spot ETF combined with the expectations of easing after Trump's inauguration, along with the approval of the stablecoin bill. So now the condition for the spot ETF hasn't changed, Trump being in office hasn't changed, the underlying compliance logic of legal easing hasn't changed, and the macro environment is about to head in the direction of interest rate cuts and liquidity expansion, which also hasn't changed.
So where does the bear market come from?
Information collapse caused by manipulation by the Trump family?
Derived from the K-line indicators?
These may not be wrong, but we need to analyze the causes of the bull market from the ground up. If these fundamental conditions remain unchanged, then the logic of the bull market has not changed. Or we can say that we can transition from Bull Market A to Bull Market B, gradually shifting from a small bull market with targeted ETF liquidity to a large bull market with global liquidity. However, there is a larger hidden uncertainty condition here. That is, after the current confrontation between China and the United States, how will the United States conclude? Will financial easing lead to currency depreciation or revive the real economy?
The three major pillars of this bull market—the structural demand for spot ETFs, stablecoin legislation at the federal level in the United States, and the directional turning point from macro tightening to loosening—are still in place. They determine that the logic chain of the bull market has not been broken; it has merely been disrupted by political and leverage fluctuations, with deep pullbacks of "repricing and rebalancing" occurring along the way.
What can truly turn a bull into a bear is a reversal of one of the fundamental conditions by substantial policies, liquidity, and compliance frameworks, or a geopolitical-driven contraction of dollar liquidity and a collapse in risk appetite.
Currently, the three major bases are still valid:
1. ETF = Institutionalization of Demand Pipeline
2. Stablecoin Law = US Dollar - National-level Certainty of the Crypto "Bridge"
3. Macroeconomic Direction = The "Slow Variable" of the Discount Rate Decline
The three real dangerous paths of "bull to bear":
1. Spot ETFs face tightening of regulations or technical chain reactions triggered by large-scale redemptions;
2. Inflation resurges, forcing the Federal Reserve to pause or reverse its easing path (raising interest rates strengthens the dollar), leading to a return of global liquidity scarcity;
3. The China-US negotiations have completely failed. This has led to increased tariffs, export controls, and further tightening of key mineral/high-end manufacturing supply chains, which in turn has depressed global growth expectations and risk appetite.
Currently, it seems that regardless of whether it's a black swan or a gray rhinoceros, they are unlikely to fundamentally disrupt the underlying logic and structure of the bull market. The most extreme state of the market would merely be a sluggish trading volume, with the overall market entering a semi-dormant inactive state, and a deathly bear market for the industry is out of the question.
The ultimate variable that may determine whether the future market will upgrade from "ETF-directed liquidity small bull", referred to as Bull A, to "global liquidity large bull", referred to as Bull B, may still lie in "how the U.S. concludes this round of confrontation with China". Because this is the prerequisite for understanding how the U.S. will develop in the financial sector where it still holds a clear advantage in the future.
If financial priorities are adopted, such as loose hedging, industrial subsidies, and friend-shoring, there will be medium to long-term benefits for risk assets, but the process may be interrupted by noise from tariffs/export controls.
If "re-industrialization" is strongly promoted, such as through fiscal supply-side policies, prioritizing technology and national security, and capital expenditures crowding out liquidity, it would be unfriendly to crypto in the short term. However, if stablecoins and ETFs have been institutionalized, the bull will not be "one-size-fits-all," but will instead slow down and shrink.
The reality is mostly a mixed path: we need both industrial security and the capital market to maintain the wealth effect; we both negotiate and fight. Ultimately, we can transition from bull A to bull B, but the rhythm depends on how this game is set up.
In short, it is not that the "bull is gone" but rather that the "bull is shifting gears." The term "bear market" is only warranted when institutional demand channels are blocked, macro directions are forcibly reversed, or geopolitical conditions revert to "extreme scarcity". The current evidence chain resembles a transition from Bull A to Bull B via political and leverage fluctuations. #广场创作者认证申请上线