The trend of gold is often more honest than the news.

Recently, there is an indescribable unease in the market. The rise of gold has been too rapid, with a few weeks of gains equaling those of the past few months or even years. If you look at that curve, you will feel the capital escaping and the emotions tightening. No one is saying it out loud, but everyone knows that something is brewing behind the scenes.

This round of market movement reminds me of a term: risk aversion instinct. The market's reaction is sometimes more direct than policy; when people start to doubt the safety of bonds, the bubble in the stock market, and the value of currency, funds will automatically flow to safer places. Gold just happens to symbolize that.

What has happened in the past few weeks has continued to stimulate this sentiment. The China-U.S. trade has stirred again, a company called First Brndi announced bankruptcy with debts exceeding billions, and there are reports of two billion dollars missing. Looking at one incident may seem like an accident, but when viewed together, it resembles a series of flashing signals. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan once said, "Seeing one wolf often means there are more." The current smell of the market is indeed not quite right.

On the surface, the credit environment in the United States is tightening, with high interest rates and expensive funding, but the risks have not disappeared. The scale of debt continues to expand, the fiscal deficit is still increasing, and the volatility in the bond market is becoming more frequent. What seems to be a solid structure has actually begun to loosen. The rise of gold appears to be a collective reaction; when cracks appear in the system's trust, the market will seek an outlet on its own.

I always feel that in times like this, one should not be too optimistic or too pessimistic. What is more important is to look back at the investments in hand, which ones are truly safe and which ones only seem to be fine for now.
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