The future of BTC is promising.

Core Bullish Logic
Halving cycle effect: After the fourth halving in April 2024,
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC,
Historical Rule: The cycle peak may be reached 12-18 months after the halving.
1. If the trend of the previous three times continues, it will be in the later stages of a bull market by the end of 2025.
The target price generally points to $120,000 - $150,000.

[Institutional capital continues to flow in]
1. The management scale of spot Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock, Fidelity) is expected to exceed $150 billion, with an increase in institutional holdings (such as MicroStrategy, Tesla) forming structural demand support.
2. Wall Street giants view BTC as a "digital gold" allocation,
Further consolidate the bottom

[Macroeconomic Environment]
If the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle (expected in 2024-2025), liquidity easing may drive up risk assets,
The appeal of BTC as an anti-inflation tool has increased.

Potential Risks and Neutral Scenarios
Regulatory Uncertainty: If major economies strengthen cryptocurrency regulations (such as taxation and trading restrictions), it may dampen market sentiment.
Competition Diversion: The development of ecosystems such as Ethereum and Solana may undermine BTC's dominance (currently accounting for about 40% of market capitalization).
Technical pullback: In the short term, it may fluctuate around the $100,000 level before targeting higher goals.

[Key Time Node Prediction]
Q4 Surge: Historical data shows that BTC often experiences seasonal increases in the fourth quarter. Coupled with the halving effect, it may reach its annual peak around November.

Extreme Bullish View: Some analysts believe that if institutional demand exceeds expectations, it could break through $180,000 or even $250,000, but we must be wary of liquidity crises and other black swan events.

In summary, the BTC market is likely to continue the bull market by the end of 2025.
But attention should be paid to changes in policies and market sentiment.
It is recommended that we investors flexibly operate by combining technical aspects (such as support/resistance levels) with macro dynamics.

I don't know the support/resistance levels that concern me.
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