📍Ethereum Market Analysis: What is the next step after support is lost?

Recently, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has seen a significant correction, falling below the previously regarded key defense zone of the 3600—3650 USD support range. This area was originally the core bottom line for bulls, but now that it has been broken, the short-term market sentiment has weakened to some extent.

1. Key interval changes: Support turns into pressure

Downside:
After ETH breaks below the 3600-3650 range, there is a possibility of a further short-term retracement to 3300 USD.
This position belongs to the area of intense competition between bulls and bears in the early stage. If it holds, it is expected to become a point of temporary stabilization.

On the upward aspect:
The 3800—3900 USD range had previously acted as effective support before the sell-off in October, but it has now turned into a strong resistance zone above.
If the market bounces back, it is expected to encounter significant selling pressure in that range.

Conclusion:
Currently, ETH is still in the structure of "breaking down support → retracing to find a new balance."

2. The core of the divergent trend: Bitcoin's direction determines Ethereum's rhythm.
The market has a clear divergence regarding future trends, and the root of this divergence lies in:
The direction of ETH is still dominated by BTC.

If Bitcoin cannot hold the $100,000 mark and further dips to around $72,000, then ETH is likely to continue to test the bottom.

Conversely, if BTC stabilizes and rises again during the current fluctuations, ETH will also enter a phase of recovery and rebound.

In one sentence:
The trend signals of ETH look at BTC, while the rhythm signals of ETH look at the capital situation.

3. Medium to Long-term Perspective: Fundamentals Remain Unchanged, Fluctuations are Normal Consolidation.
Although the short-term market is under pressure, from a medium to long-term framework perspective:

The fundamentals of Ethereum have not significantly deteriorated.

The scale of stablecoins continues to expand.

On-chain applications and ecosystem activity maintain resilience.

The overall environment for risky assets has not shown systemic risk.

In other words:
This is not a trend reversal, but rather a typical slow bull cycle of "capital washing + deleveraging."
For mature investors who have experienced past cycles, the magnitude of this pullback is not considered exaggerated.

IV. Strategy Approach: Cautious for short-term, incremental for medium-term, remain calm with spot trading.
Before the market has formed a clear reversal signal:
Do not chase after short-term gains; wait for the structure to repair before considering following through on the medium-term range of 3300—3600. It is advisable to adopt a staggered layout approach rather than making a one-time long-term spot investment, as the fundamentals have not changed, and holders need not panic due to short-term fluctuations.
Key Points:

Before the U.S. government reopens, the market may still be in a phase of turbulence.
However, for patient layout-type capital, this period is rather a window for "time to exchange for chips."

📌 Summary
The current adjustment of ETH more reflects a rhythm switch in the continuation of the bull market, rather than a trend reversal.
Short-term repairs still depend on BTC, but the medium-term logic has not been broken.

The core of a slow bull market is not to chase rebounds, but to wait for the right position and rhythm.

⚠️ Disclaimer
This article is for market observation sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile. Please participate reasonably based on your own risk tolerance and avoid emotional trading.