To return the market to a risk appetite track, it requires not just a piece of good news but a combination of multiple factors producing sustained positive signals. U.S. Treasury yields must stabilize or decline to boost market confidence. Meanwhile, the VIX should narrow to 14-16, credit spreads should tighten, and the rally in gold should weaken—meaning safe-haven assets will no longer be the only obvious choice.

For cryptocurrencies, this means Bitcoin stabilizing around the $100,000 support level, spot ETFs resuming net inflows, and re-establishing its position as a high-beta global asset. The macro narrative must shift from controlling losses to seizing opportunities—markets don't need paradise, just the avoidance of new crises: a controllable financial environment, no signs of a severe recession, and no new unexpected policies from central banks.

When 3-4 of these three elements simultaneously meet at least 1-2 days without new shocks, a new sustainable risk appetite emerges.

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