Can Rigetti Computing make you a million dollars? Reality is quite tough.

This story is very enticing, but the details are the real killer

Investing $10,000 in Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) at the beginning of 2023 has now grown to nearly $500,000. The hype around quantum computing has been fierce, especially with the crazy surge since the end of last year—rising 173% in just September and October.

But here’s the question: Can it continue to rise 100 times to reach $1 million? The chances are slim.

Rigetti’s Advantages and Traps

It does have some unique strengths—vertical integration, handling chip design, manufacturing, software, and cloud platform all in-house, allowing rapid iteration. Recently, it signed three contracts, including government orders from the Air Force, which adds some credibility.

However, the reality is:

• Burns cash heavily: Lost $65 million in the past 12 months
• Intense competition: Google’s Willow chip has demonstrated quantum advantage in Nature, and IBM is working on hybrid systems. These giants have far greater funding and R&D capabilities than Rigetti
• Overvalued: Market cap of $14.3 billion, but analysts forecast only $21.5 million in revenue by 2026. This is purely option speculation with no solid fundamentals backing it

Data Speaks

If Rigetti truly rises 100 times, its market cap would hit $1.4 trillion—comparable to Tesla’s current size. Achieving this would require:

1. Quantum computing to be truly commercialized (not yet proven)
2. Rigetti to beat Google and IBM in competition (almost impossible)
3. The market size to reach McKinsey’s predicted $100 billion within ten years (a bold ambition)

Conclusion

Quantum computing is a hot trend, but investing in Rigetti is like betting on a small company winning in a gamble. The days of high returns may be over; most current investors are just playing concept FOMO.

If you have a high risk tolerance and are purely gambling, you can try a small position. But to turn $10,000 into $1 million? You’d need to bet on both the industry and the company correctly—an extremely difficult challenge.