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#Nonsense This market is very interesting. From my observation, the sentiment in the community has reached an extreme pessimism. Let's chat about the trading logic behind the trend divergence.
In the trend movement, there are two central points: the A central point is used for selling. Since it cannot allow the price to drop too quickly, the main force usually sells while supporting the price. When it reaches the end of the inventory stage, there is no need to support anymore and will clear everything at once, leading to a downward departure. This will also cause trend traders like me to follow along, forming a collective force, which often results in a non-divergent departure. At this stage, ordinary retail investors are unresponsive because the speed is too fast, and many lack the technical identification ability, still caught up in the FOMO emotions at the peak. Instead, they tend to buy more as the price drops, which is the phenomenon known as "continuously bottom-fishing halfway up the mountain."
After a phase of stabilization, the main force will choose the right moment to enter the market, testing the release of selling pressure. The method of testing is to intervene with a small amount of buying to see if the price can go up. This is why there are often upward probing lines in the bottom trading range. In the bottom range, those who have been trapped before will be extremely panicked and want to sell at any rebound, while the main force will periodically push up the price, actively allowing you to break even and hand over your chips. The performance on the market is like creating a B central point to facilitate the turnover of chips. A good main force will ensure that the concentration of circulating chips is greater than 50%. A more aggressive example is Li Biao, the first-generation trader in the A-share market, who washed the concentration of chips up to 90%. This is a top trader with extremely strong techniques. In the B central point, besides the traders, there are also a small number of retail investors buying based on support. Therefore, at the end of the consolidation, the main force will make one last push down. Since the market has been falling, it is not easy to form bottom support. When it breaks down, it serves two purposes: to cause complete panic and to make those who built positions midway give up their chips, allowing trend traders like me to chase the short. Then, it collapses. This last push down is not really meant to go down; rather, it sets a bear trap. If it truly breaks down, it means breaking their own cost price, which makes no logical sense in terms of operations.
As the market reaches this point, there is extreme panic, and everyone is very pessimistic, with news of various jumpers and liquidations circulating. However, the turning point in the market is about to appear. Due to the high concentration of chips, the price will rebound at a very small level and quickly move away from the bottom without giving you a chance to react, running upwards through the medium bearish zone. At this time, those who are liquidated have no chips, and those who cut losses have no chips; they can only wait for the distribution at the top to buy in at high positions.
This is probably a complete trend movement; the story may be different, but the logic is similar. It's purely a topic for casual conversation, unrelated to trading. It's purely about the logic behind the trends, allowing you to better understand the psychological state of different market participants, what choices they might make under certain circumstances, and what kind of movements could result.