Last week, BTC's weekly line broke below the key trend line of the annual MA52, and today at noon it fell below 90, with the fear index dropping to 9. I believe many frens are exceptionally worried. Has the Bear Market already arrived?

Based on the information available, I cannot yet determine with 100% certainty that the Bear Market has begun. I believe that players in the market have split into several factions: one still optimistic about a bull market, and another firmly shorting. However, I believe the largest faction in the market right now is the swing traders, who are all struggling with the question: should they add positions to catch the bottom now, or cut losses and exit?

I deployed 40% of my 10% bullet for BTC today, with an average price of 91.1K across three orders, and I did not get to eat the hanging orders below 90K. After dinner, I happened to see a video, which I personally feel is quite good. The focus of the video is not on discussing the bull and bear market of BTC, but rather on explaining at this moment whether you still believe in the future of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry. As an individual player, how should you face the current situation.

I tried to extract the central idea of the video to restore this relatively high-quality logical thinking. I believe this will be a profound inspiration for many frens. Next, we won't talk about complex data; we'll focus only on the most core question: should we add or not? How to add?

First, the video assesses the current phase: the turning point between the Bull and Bear Market. The reason it is important now is that the next couple of months will likely determine the direction of BTC in the Bull or Bear Market. The current price is hovering below the psychological support line of 100K, while the average cost of large institutions' positions is around 74000.

If it really turns into a Bear Market, the price may converge towards the institutional cost zone.

If the upward trend after May 2021 can continue, the next target is expected to reach 135000.

The nearly double price difference in the middle means that the current decision will directly affect future profits. But instead of discussing "what price to buy," I would rather talk about the core aspect that many people overlook -- time.

More important than the price is: your time cost.

My friends who often pay attention to me know that I always value time more than technical indicators and data. Because time cost is the most uncontrollable and easily overlooked.

The current price of 93,000 is indeed much lower compared to the previous 126,000. Some people say, "Holding long-term will definitely lead to an increase," and I do not deny this. But the key question is not "Will it increase?" but rather "When will it increase?"

It’s easy to believe that BTC will rise to 200,000 in 20 years, but how many 20 years does one have in life?

In the crypto space, we invest not by betting on the "distant future", but by betting on "how much return we can get in a controllable time frame". This view is quite similar to some of my previous posts, just like when I first sold 10% of my large BTC position at 122000. The original plan was to start selling again at 130000, but I missed the execution by 8000, and then I sold another 10% at 123000. You might say I was greedy; if the price goes up afterwards, this operation would definitely be a missed opportunity.

My reply at that time was that I would adjust my trading plan in a timely manner based on the actual trends combined with time nodes. I won't judge my decisions based on single-instance profits; the key is whether I can accept the "time cost paid for this choice." Looking back now, this decision is reasonable; even if this time it can hit 150K, I won't regret my decision for this 20% position.

Time cost is very important to me personally, after all, I am not a player with financial freedom. So I have emphasized more than once that everyone’s capital has a cost; if you are quite wealthy, it may be relatively lower, but if you are in debt, then the time cost is very high. In case the market trend does not meet our expectations, you must face this core issue in a timely manner.

The four-year cycle is a test of time consensus. You might think this way, but would the main players on Wall Street think like this? I don't know, but I believe there must be some underlying logic changes, so I have extended the holding period of my positions by about half a year.

If we are to choose to enter the market again at this moment, or choose to hold our positions firmly, it is best to ask ourselves the following 3 questions, and the answers will naturally emerge (I personally believe this question is suitable for BTC, ETH, and some valuable mainstream coins, and this viewpoint has actually been expressed from another angle during the live broadcast):

1. If it really turns into a Bear Market right now, how long can you endure the bearish market? 1 year? 2 years? Or will you feel anxious and collapse once it falls below a certain point?

2. During the holding period, do you have any other better investment opportunities? For example, your main business or side business that can generate higher returns for your funds?

3. Looking back three years later, will you regret not adding to your position now? Or will you regret not withdrawing funds in a timely manner to do something more secure?

Once you have thought through the above questions clearly, you can formulate relevant response strategies based on your different situations:

1. If you can accept a holding period of 2-4 years and have no better investment options: you can gradually increase your position without worrying about whether it is 93K or 88K; in the long run, the small price difference does not matter much.

2. If you are only willing to give it half a year to a year, or simply do not want to endure a Bear Market: do not add to your positions anymore. Either set part of your holdings as long-term experimental positions and gradually withdraw the rest during the rebound; or simply accept the current situation, treat this money as a ten-year lottery ticket, and then focus on things that will yield results within one or two years, ensuring that you can make money.

3. As I mentioned in my previous post, if I want to use the remaining 30% of my large position to average down on BTC, my general plan would be executed as follows (for reference only): add positions in three stages -- start with a small position now to avoid missing the rebound; increase significantly when it falls to the 74000 institutional cost area, during market panic; if it breaks below the institutional cost and public opinion shouts that the Bitcoin bubble has burst, fire the last bullet.

Then I generated a trading plan sheet using AI, perhaps you can refer to it. Finally, I think the video script is well written, it summarizes as follows:

The essence of investing is choosing "who to entrust your time to." Investing is very much like falling in love; you invest your time and energy, but it may not necessarily develop as expected. The volatility in the crypto world far exceeds that of ordinary markets, so don’t naively think that "holding for ten years will definitely make you money." You might not even be able to pay for insurance for ten years, let alone volatile crypto assets that could surge or plummet at any moment.

Now adding to your position is not about "choosing the price", but about "choosing whether to dedicate a certain period of your life to Bitcoin (or any altcoin you believe in)". Think clearly about the time you can invest and the risks you can bear. If one day you are willing to commit your funds and time to BTC, you are likely not to be swayed by market emotions.