#美股2026展望 Late Night Review: The Short Positions Logic of BTC and ETH

Looking back at this week's trading trajectory, the short positions exhibited a step-down characteristic. From 95200 on Monday to 92500 on Thursday, the short selling points for BTC continued to decline, while ETH also dropped from around 3150 to 2050. This decreasing entry pattern reveals a signal - each round of technical rebound is compressing the upward space.

On the daily chart of Bitcoin, the three lines of the Bollinger Bands are resonating downwards. Although the lower band is gradually declining, the space left for further declines is not ample, which has led to periodic rebound actions on the chart. These rebounds are essentially creating new pressure testing points while paving the way for future profit zones on the downside. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD bearish histogram is still expanding, and although the KDJ and RSI have reached the oversold zone, there are no signs of a reversal and stabilization.

Switching to the 4-hour cycle, the recent rebound has not even broken through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with both the middle and upper bands showing a suppressive pattern. Although the lower band has a slight upward tilt, the overall structure is biased towards bearish. The KDJ has formed a death cross, the RSI is turning downwards, and the bullish momentum of the MACD is clearly shrinking—a typical trap of a volume-less rebound.

Ethereum is performing weaker. The position at 3050 overlaps with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level and the 20-day moving average, and the 4-hour midline also forms resonance suppression here, with several attempts being firmly held down.

Strategically, rebounds are still opportunities for positioning rather than signals to chase long positions. Existing short positions do not need to be hurriedly closed out, and new entrants can gradually build positions during technical pullbacks, but it is essential to control position sizes to avoid excessive risk exposure in a one-sided market.

The market is always switching between volatility and calm; grasping the rhythm is more important than predicting the direction.