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The freshly released data package contains some meaning; let's unpack it to see who has the upper hand in the long and short positions:

📌 The unemployment rate in September → has gone up, higher than expected (this is good for rate cuts)
📌 September Non-farm → The numbers don't look good (but note, this is old business)
📌 Last week's initial jobless claims → a bit bad

But don't panic, there is something fishy behind these three numbers:

**First, let's talk about why you don't need to fear the non-farm payrolls**
This "failing" report card was reissued in September, which is basically outdated news. What really can influence the interest rate cut in December is the data from November—here's the problem, the non-farm payroll data for November won't be released until December 16, but the Federal Reserve has to make a decision by December 11. This time gap directly diminishes the reference value of the non-farm payroll data, making it like choosing answers on a test with your eyes closed.

**The unemployment rate has instead become good news**
The higher-than-expected unemployment rate confirms that the job market is cooling down, just in time to catch the Federal Reserve Chairman's remark, "We're keeping an eye on the employment data." This signal clearly indicates that the expectation for interest rate cuts has heated up once again.

**What is the increase in initial unemployment benefits?**
These small ripples cannot stir up big waves. More importantly, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released yesterday have already priced in the bad news, and the market has digested it.

💡 **Conclusion is here**: Although the data aspect is somewhat bearish, the overall framework hasn't changed. A major drop? It's basically impossible. Smart money has already positioned itself in advance, now just waiting for that interest rate cut whistle to blow.