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Morgan Stanley's latest research report has made a big move - the Fed's December interest rate cut plan has fallen through, and it has been changed to three actions in January, April, and June next year, ultimately stabilizing the interest rate in the range of 3%-3.25%. Many people panicked upon seeing the news, thinking that the crypto market is about to enter a cold winter?
Calm down, this matter needs to be looked at from the opposite perspective.
The Fed's recent actions are actually fine-tuning—temporarily stabilizing inflation expectations to avoid a hard landing for the economy; in the long term, the total amount of liquidity released hasn't changed, just the pace has been extended. Looking back at the 2020 easing cycle, Bitcoin soared from over $3,000 to $60,000, with many people completing their layouts at the early stage of the policy shift. Now, delaying interest rate cuts has instead provided a window for market valuation repair—most of the bubbles have been squeezed out, and when the interest rate cut cycle truly starts next year, the inflow of funds may be even stronger.
The historical lesson is there: last year during the most aggressive rate hikes, panic selling hit the floor price, and as a result, BTC later rebounded and doubled. The market always creates opportunities amidst volatility; the key is whether you can withstand the short-term psychological pressure.
Of course, this is not a signal for mindless bottom-fishing. Although there are expectations for interest rate cuts, the macro environment still has uncertainties—U.S. employment data, inflation trends, and geopolitical risks could all cause disruptions. The real strategy should be: invest spare money in batches, avoid going all-in; keep a close watch on the policy implementation milestones in the first quarter of next year; choose targets with solid fundamentals that haven't been speculated on excessively.
The market has never lacked stories; what it lacks is the patience to see the logic behind the stories.