BTC has plunged below 88000 in one go, how much has your holdings turned green in the last couple of days?

To be honest, this drop is indeed severe. Many people ask me: Is this a bear market arriving early? Or is it just a correction in the middle of a bull market? Having been in this space for five years, I want to share some heartfelt words with you today.

You see this crash, it actually comes from several knives stabbing at once. The Nasdaq on the US stock side has been falling continuously, and BTC is now tightly bound to the US stock market, so when it falls, we also suffer; the Treasury Secretary and SEC head nominated by Trump have an old-school style, and the expected easing and crypto-friendly policies have all evaporated, so funds naturally withdraw as a courtesy; the outflow speed of Grayscale's GBTC has set a new record, and institutions are clearly reducing their holdings at high levels, with on-chain large transfer data hitting the ceiling; altcoins are even worse, either going to zero directly or being halved, retail investors can't hold on anymore and start dumping BTC and ETH for cash; once the weekly level breaks, long stop-loss orders are triggered, and short sellers take advantage of the situation.

My view is very straightforward - it is not yet as dead as the bear market of 2022. It feels more like a normal pullback during the bull markets in March and July of this year, which essentially means flushing out the weak retail investors. But don't be complacent; if U.S. stocks continue to fall next week and the Trump team releases some hawkish statements, it is possible for BTC to drop below 70,000 or even down to 60,000, at which point we might really enter the early stages of a bear market.

The current situation is: a pullback, expectation adjustments, and institutional selling pressure, all three mountains coming down at once. It will definitely hurt in the short term, but it's not the end of the world. Ordinary players should avoid following the crowd to cut losses, and don’t blindly try to catch the bottom; just focus on the long-term trend. Those holding quality assets should be patient and ride out this wave.