#美股2026展望 November 21 Observation｜BTC's recent correction is quite intense

Last night, when the non-farm payroll data was released, BTC immediately entered a waterfall decline. I had already warned at around 90,500 that there's no need to rush into a bottom-fishing, at least wait until it breaks below 89,000—turns out the market was quite accommodating, dumping all the way down to 86,000 before taking a breather.

Honestly, the current market looks quite delicate. After dropping to a low, prices started to consolidate sideways with significant volume, around 273,000 in trading volume. The bears are clearly in the lead, but if you look closely at the 86,000 level, the bulls are not completely absent; both sides are engaged in a tug-of-war here.

What does the technical analysis say? The Bollinger Bands are widening downward, with the price moving along the lower band. Don't expect a V-shaped reversal in the short term. The MACD is even more obvious, with a dead cross already formed, and the green bars are still growing, indicating strong bearish momentum. RSI hasn't yet entered the oversold zone, suggesting there could still be room for further decline.

On the news front, two points to watch closely: first, the Federal Reserve's upcoming stance on interest rates. If they signal a hawkish tone or expectations of rate hikes increase, BTC will likely remain under pressure; second, any regulatory developments. At this stage, any signs of stricter regulation could trigger sell-offs.

For trading strategies, here are two approaches:

Long positions: wait until the price retraces to the 84,700-85,500 range, with stop-loss below 84,000. For a more conservative approach, look for resistance at 87,000; for a more aggressive stance, target 89,000.

Short positions: consider a rebound to the resistance zone at 89,300-90,000, with stop-loss above 89,800. First target is 86,000, then 84,700.

Of course, strategies are just guidelines, and actual trading depends on whether the market provides opportunities. At this level, patience is more important than anything else.