Bitcoin retraced overnight to 82,000, and Ethereum plummeted 10% in a single day—what triggered this sell-off was actually an unexpected comment from a usually silent Federal Reserve official.

Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, who rarely makes public statements, surprisingly spoke out this time, giving the market a cold shower: "Inflation is still stuck at 3%, far from the 2% target, and we need to remain cautious." While he didn't explicitly oppose a rate cut, the word "cautious" was enough to make traders understand—probably the 25 basis points in December are off the table.

How exaggerated was the reaction in the US stock market? On Thursday morning, the Nasdaq was up 2%, but by the afternoon, the tone changed dramatically, closing down 2%. Bitcoin even broke below the $90,000 level, and risk assets plunged instantly. Market bets on a rate cut in December plummeted from 80% confidence to only 40% overnight.

Even more concerning is the lack of consensus within the Federal Reserve. The hawkish camp has grown alarmingly strong: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester directly said, "Further rate cuts would only add fuel to inflation." Kansas Fed President Esther George already voted against a rate cut last month, and it's unlikely she’ll change her stance now. The dovish faction? Basically silent, with any occasional voices drowned out by hawkish rhetoric. Even Nick Timiraos, the Fed’s mouthpiece, stated that the September non-farm payroll data deepened divisions and that no consensus could be reached.

Speaking of the September non-farm data, it's basically a mystery. The added jobs were 119,000, more than double expectations, which looks impressive. But the unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%, hitting a four-year high. Powell interpreted it as: the market is cooling, but not enough to warrant an emergency rate cut.

All eyes are now on the December FOMC meeting. Powell's vote could be the decisive factor—if they truly pause rate cuts, this easing cycle will end prematurely this year. Wall Street has already started warning: high interest rates will continue to suppress risk assets, and don’t expect too much hope for rate cuts next year.

Data conflicts, officials turning against each other, market turmoil—these three forces together ensure that the December Federal Reserve meeting will not be calm.