The market may truly be changing. This time it's not panic—it's the data speaking. Multiple signals across various dimensions are all pointing in one direction: the bull market may have come to an end.

Let’s start with the time dimension. In the past three cycles, the real top always appeared between the 16th and 18th month after the halving. Coincidence? Not likely. This time, it’s already been 19 months since the halving—perfectly matching historical patterns. Judging by the time cycle alone, we’re already standing in the danger zone.

Next, let’s look at price action. Last week, Bitcoin dropped from $96,000 all the way down to $80,600—a weekly decline of over 17%. This kind of drop is reminiscent of the 21% weekly crash in 2017 and the 25% meltdown in 2021. Every time before the bull market peaks, there’s always this kind of sharp correction—the main bull run structure breaks, and the trend reverses. History doesn’t repeat itself exactly, but it always rhymes.

Institutional moves are even more concerning. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 5 to 7 consecutive days, with the amounts increasing day by day. Remember? The same thing happened at the 2021 top: funds quietly withdrew first, then the market suddenly collapsed. When the engine of the bull market stops roaring—and even starts reversing—the rules of the game change.

Finally, look at BTC dominance. This number is approaching 60%, and it continues to climb. Many people see this as a sign of Bitcoin’s strength, but in reality, it’s the opposite—it’s classic risk-off behavior at the start of a bear market. During the 2018 bear market, dominance jumped from 38% to 60%, with altcoins being collectively abandoned; the same pattern played out in 2022. When funds start rushing into BTC for safety, it means the market is preparing for a long winter.

Data doesn’t lie. When the signals from cycle, price, capital flows, and market structure all flash red at the same time, it’s probably time to seriously consider your next move.