Recently saw a prediction that is both hilarious and absurd.

A certain analyst swore that XRP would soar from $1.9 to nearly $300 in the next 12 days. He also shared a technical chart, claiming that historically, every time there is a breakout from this triangle pattern, there is a huge surge, and this time will definitely be the same.

So what? The entire community is basically rolling their eyes.

Let's do the math and it will be clear. To make XRP rise to 300 dollars, there needs to be an enormous amount of money flooding in, and almost no one in the market can sell. The problem is, the liquidity in the exchanges is limited and simply cannot withstand this level of shock. This is not a prediction, it's daydreaming.

Technical charts indeed have reference value, and XRP has previously followed certain patterns to produce some decent market movements. But this time? To rise 300 times, unless some miracle happens—like major global banks collectively announcing the adoption of XRP as a cross-border settlement tool, or regulation suddenly making a 180-degree turn. Can such things be resolved in just a few days?

Netizens' complaints are even more精彩. One called OGA NFT directly posted: "Does this guy think the market is his backyard? Drawing two lines can predict the future; does he really think everyone is stupid?" Below, there was a chorus of agreement, with everyone saying that such predictions don't hold up mathematically.

Think about it calmly, what conditions are needed to achieve such a surge? First, all major holders and institutions must decide to lock up their assets and not move them; second, global buying pressure must flood in like crazy; and finally, the trading system cannot crash. It is very difficult to achieve these three conditions individually, let alone satisfy them all at the same time. This has never happened in history.

This case is actually quite interesting. It reminds us that in the crypto market, just listening to stories is not enough; we need to see if the logic holds up to scrutiny. There are more and more rational voices in the community now, with everyone emphasizing the need to make judgments based on real conditions, rather than being led by various unrealistic predictions.

The market is always full of surprises, but there is an essential difference between surprises and illusions.