BTC falls below 100,000 USD: Is the bull run really over?

Question

Recently, BTC has repeatedly tested the 100k USD mark and finally couldn't hold on. But is this “the Bear Market has arrived” or “a mid-term adjustment”? Let's use on-chain data to uncover the truth.

Key Signal: Bulls Have Surrendered

The cost line for short-term holders ($112,500) has been breached. Historically, this usually indicates: a decline in demand and a phase ending in the Bull Market. Currently, the drop is about 21%, falling from a peak of 126k.

But is this really a big crash? Not necessarily. Just look at these indicators to know—

71% of BTC is still profitable, far from the level of panic selling. During the bear market from 2022 to 2023, this figure could drop below 20%. The current “unrealized loss rate” is only 3.1%, indicating that the market is adjusting in an orderly manner, not experiencing a catastrophic decline.

Large holders are frantically selling off

This is very heartbreaking—since July, long-term holders have sold 300,000 BTC (from 14.7 million to 14.4 million). The problem is: they are no longer waiting for a rebound to sell, but are selling as it goes down.

In the past during the bull market, large holders would “sell at a high point” during the upswing. Now it's the opposite - they are continuously offloading during price declines. What does this indicate? The confidence of seasoned players has clearly shaken.

The institution has “run away”

BTC spot ETF has seen a daily net outflow of 1.5 to 7 million USD over the past two weeks. Compared to the influx from early September to early October (which was the main force driving the market), institutions are clearly reducing their positions now.

This means that the “smart money” that once drove up the price of the coin is now cashing out for profit.

The trading market is dead cold

Check the CVD indicator (measuring buy and sell pressure) of the Binance and Binance spot markets:

Binance CVD：-822 BTC
Total Spot CVD: -917 BTC

Negative = selling pressure > buying pressure. In simple terms: there are fewer people in the market willing to take over, and more people wanting to run away.

Leveraged Traders are Liquidating

The directional premium of perpetual contracts has plummeted from 338 million USD/month in April to 118 million now. What does this mean? A large amount of long leverage has been forcibly liquidated or voluntarily reduced.

Traders have shifted from “going long” to “neutral” and have even started to hedge risks. Market risk appetite has declined sharply.

Options Market: Everyone is Buying Insurance

The most interesting thing is the performance of the options market —

Demand for $100k put options skyrockets, and the prices (option premiums) are extremely high. Traders are not “bottom-fishing” but are “buying insurance” to prevent further plummeting.

Implied volatility is also rising, indicating that the market expects further fluctuations ahead.

Core Logic: Fragile Balance

The market is currently in a standoff state of “neither collapsing nor rebounding:”

✅ Not in panic: 71% of coins are still making profits
❌ No confidence either: Long-term holders are continuously selling, and institutions are reducing their positions.
⚠️ Risk appetite is broadly declining: Leverage is being unwound, options are being hedged.

Key Points for the Next Step:

Resistance above: Needs to recover $112,500 to restart upward momentum
Support below: The cost line for active investors is at $88,500 (breaking this could trigger a stop-loss wave)

Conclusion

BTC breaking below 100,000 is a signal, but not the “end of the world”. A more accurate statement is: a turning point from greed to caution.

The indifference of institutions, the selling by large holders, and the deleveraging of traders - all of these are saying the same thing: the short-term rebound space is limited, and new incremental funds are needed to change the situation.

The current market is more suitable for taking a wait-and-see approach and waiting for opportunities. After all, the options market is all about buying insurance, which indicates that no one dares to say it is stable.