#数字货币市场回升 Fed chair succession speculation heats up: market game of the policy barometer

The prediction market has recently seen dramatic changes. The odds of economist Hassett being appointed as the next Fed chairman have soared by 146%, making him the frontrunner among candidates. This shift in data reflects the market's collective bet on the future direction of monetary policy.

Who is Hassett? This gentleman leans towards the accommodative faction in economic policy and has held key economic advisory roles in the previous administration. If monetary policy is the faucet for adjusting the economy, Hassett clearly belongs to the faction that "tends to open the tap more." Insider information from the White House reveals that the final candidate list has been narrowed down to five people, and the results may be announced around the Christmas holiday. Market-savvy players have already begun to position themselves in advance.

Another set of numbers illustrates the issue more clearly—certain forecasting platforms show that Hassert has a 56% probability of receiving the official nomination. In contrast, the current "hawkish representative" on the Fed Board, Waller, has a probability of only 24%. This stark contrast essentially reflects the market's expectations for a policy shift.

Calmly analyze this matter: Personnel appointments remain uncertain until the dust settles, but the flow of funds has already given an answer — traders are betting on candidates who are more inclined towards accommodative policies. If Hassett really takes that seat, the Fed's policy balance may tilt towards interest rate cuts, which usually supports risk assets like the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if hardliners like Waller take office, the market should be prepared for sustained tightening pressures.

What is the actual impact on the cryptocurrency market?

In the short term: The warming of easing expectations will weaken the dollar index, and $BTC along with precious metals tend to become active in such an environment. However, be cautious of the old routine of "expectations turning into a reversal"; when the news is realized, it may instead trigger profit-taking.

Medium to long-term perspective: It is crucial to monitor the overall composition changes of the Fed Board. If multiple positions are filled by dovish individuals, there may indeed be an interest rate cut window opening in 2025, at which point liquidity improvements will benefit the entire risk asset sector, and small-cap cryptocurrencies may usher in a speculation cycle.

What is the most common mistake retail investors make? Putting all their positions on personnel speculation. The uncertainty of political appointments is more difficult to predict than market fluctuations, and over-leveraging on a single event results in a very unfavorable risk-reward ratio.

The change of the Fed chair is not just an internal matter in Washington; its policy ripples will spread to every corner of the global capital markets—of course, including the highly volatile waters of cryptocurrency. Keeping track of information and rationally assessing risk exposure is the correct posture for navigating through cycles.