I'm back. I accidentally caught the flu and became a "secondary sheep" again. My whole body ached from the alternating chills and fevers. I have to admit, the saying "the machine breaks down as you get older" is really true. During these days of recovery, I lay in bed sleeping heavily, my thoughts drifting aimlessly. I always wanted to do something, but it felt like I didn't do anything at all.

The flu has indeed been quite severe lately. You don’t realize how tough it is until you get it yourself. For those with elderly or children at home, it's important to stay vigilant and make proper preparations.

This afternoon, I carefully reviewed the market. In just ten days, BTC had once plunged to 80,000, ETH retreated to 2,600, and mainstream altcoins were hit even harder, falling to anxiety-inducing levels. I checked the large position account of a certain OK and saw that the previously placed BTC and ETH orders had entered the market—not at the lowest point, but at least slightly profitable now.

During the November livestream, I mentioned that in this 20+ day vacuum period, most economic data was just guesswork, and the risk-aversion property of funds would become very obvious. The market would most likely drift with the tide. The probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 70% to 20%, and now has risen from 20% to 90%, swinging up and down like playing with sand. All kinds of wild speculation emerged, causing pain for both bulls and bears. In just over 20 days, another ten billion-plus in funds left the market.

That said, Japan might raise rates on the 18th, which could become a major variable for future market trends. If the rate hike actually happens, the holding time and trading difficulty will increase significantly. I now have only 20% of my ammunition left, and personally, I feel that's still a bit high. I'll wait to see the real market trend after the rate cut meeting on the 10th, and may clear out the chips from this round of buying to ensure the rationality of my position. The target ranges are around 98,000-103,000 and 3,300-3,500. If you understand technical analysis, you know the divergence at these positions is significant.

If the market pulls back at these levels, I’ll add positions in the 69,000-75,000 and 2,000-2,200 ranges.

If the market breaks through smoothly here, I’ll reduce major positions and hedge at high levels in the 110,000-115,000 range, keeping cash positions at about 50% to handle year-end fund needs and Q1 2026 market trends.

I checked the comments, and friends are most worried about ADA’s trend. Yes, I’m worried too. Over the past ten days, ADA has twice fallen below my holding cost, and there have been some negative news recently. If it continues to fall, it means the persistence of the past year was for nothing; if it drops below 0.3, it means my judgment for this alt season was completely wrong.

But has that happened yet? No, it hasn't. Based on my understanding of ADA and the average entry price in 2024, my decision is to keep waiting, but I won’t add more. Compared to the other seven small altcoin positions, ADA holdings are still healthy. From a capital cost perspective, the principal is at least not lost for now, and there’s a slight gain. But from a time cost perspective, the return isn’t good. But there’s nothing I can do—even ETH looks like this right now, so I can only accept reality at this point.

I always emphasize that we're not the same—not necessarily in financial strength, but more in mindset. Maybe it's the ups and downs in business over the years, but when facing market swings, my mindset is a bit more calm. Even if I gradually exit in Q1 next year and still haven’t made money on the altcoins, I can openly admit my misjudgment of this alt season, but I’ll never overthink or be excessively anxious. Overanalyzing and worrying helps nothing, and only builds resistance toward all financial products and investment-related businesses, making it likely you'll just live an average life.

Let me reiterate my current view: I still have expectations for the future mainstream alt season. I firmly believe macro liquidity cycles have a stronger impact on crypto than the 4-year rotation cycle. My specific viewpoints and strategies were written in the subscription posts and livestreams—I remember using DOGE’s entry and exit as examples. Interested friends can look back at those. As always, we each need to be responsible for our own accounts.

To my friends following my updates, we’ve been apart for about 10 days. Even though I didn’t post, I replied to most comments. In those darkest moments, what was your position like? What was your mindset? What changes did you experience? What twists and turns did you go through? Do you still remember?

November’s market was indeed tough. Many said BTC would fall to 70k/60k/50k/40k, and some even asked in the comments, “What would you do if BTC drops to 30k?” I wouldn’t do anything—I won’t worry about things with less than a 1% chance in the short-term. I’ll only judge my own position based on my actual situation.

Looking back at the past 10 days of social media, every market drop brought stories of liquidations, MicroStrategy allegedly selling coins, China cracking down again, Japan aggressively raising rates, exchange hacks—every day was another round of panic news. The media tells you to cut losses, influencers urge you to short, and some extreme voices say, “down 10% a day, bottom in 10 days, zero in 20.” Others say, “Wait for ETH to drop to 1,000, BTC to 50k, then sell your house and car to buy in.” All this chaos keeps poking at your fragile psychological defenses.

Are there few people like this? I think there are many. This is a classic retail investor mentality. Many people habitually panic and overthink during big drops, and get carried away during rallies. If you sum up the crypto trading experience with simple words—is trading really about technical skills? In this market of random probability, I don’t think so. For most people, it’s about mindset and understanding.

The most valuable takeaway from a big drop is the psychological change process—you should record this most. Were you panicked? Calm? Wanted to buy more on the dip? Felt lucky to have avoided losses? Account changes are linked to your mindset, but if you can clearly identify the issues, that’s real review, and it becomes your most important asset for making money in crypto.

Tempering your mindset requires actually experiencing crypto’s ups and downs. If your mindset hasn’t truly been tested by the volatility of this free market, you’re only hearing other people’s stories. If listening was enough to improve, you wouldn’t need real experience. If just learning theory could elevate your mindset, then people with good grades would all be rich.

What you gain from your own experience, reflect on yourself, and apply in practice, is truly yours. What others tell you is useless. Those who say, “I’ll buy if it drops to X, sell if it rises to Y,” are just talking. The path of trading is one you must walk yourself. Words mean nothing—the mindset you have when you put real money on the line is your true strength.

I’ve mentioned before, you shouldn’t sell at the most panicked moment—even if you don’t buy, you shouldn’t sell now. Even in a bear market, there are rebound levels; 9.8k-10k would be more reasonable to sell. In this situation, holding is the only correct choice. Even if the market keeps dropping to around 70k, you need to hold on, record your mindset and positions. Only by grinding through this can you have a real chance to make money in the long run.

I promised a few friends that I’d do a livestream before the rate cut meeting, so let’s discuss more then. #十二月行情展望