Bitcoin($BTC), short-term holders still realize a 66% profit in the context of the 2025 bear market

Bitcoin(BTC) has a negative return since the beginning of 2025. Paradoxically, short-term holders are realizing higher profit rates. Complex on-chain structures reveal market sentiments that differ from surface price trends.

According to on-chain analysis, short-term Bitcoin holders sold assets while in profit for 229 days out of 345 days this year, approximately 66% of the time. This indicates that despite Bitcoin’s price remaining below $100,000 (about 14.77 million KRW) throughout the year and trending downward since early January, many profits were still realized at the time of sale.

The key price influencing market sentiment is the realized price of short-term holders, approximately $81,000 (about 11.963 billion KRW). Based on this level, the market appears divided into the “Fear Zone” and the “Recovery Zone.” When prices fall below this point, many short-term holders enter the loss zone, increasing selling pressure. Conversely, when prices rise above this point, optimistic sentiment tends to revive.

This trend can also be confirmed through the NUPL indicator. The unrealized losses of short-term holders have improved from a high of -28% earlier this year to around -12% recently. This suggests that the “panic selling” sentiment is gradually easing.

In 2025, Bitcoin’s price volatility is particularly evident among short-term holders with holding periods of 1 to 3 months. According to CryptoQuant charts, Bitcoin prices repeatedly touch the realized price, causing the market to alternate between green (profitable) and red (loss) NUPL zones. This reflects typical consolidation phases accompanied by psychological uncertainty and buyer confidence.

Ultimately, during the tug-of-war around the $80,000 range near the realized price, the realized behavior of short-term traders continues to play a vital role in balancing the market. This indicates that on-chain signals are an extremely effective means of understanding Bitcoin’s intrinsic market dynamics (which cannot be grasped by short-term price movements alone).

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market Interpretation

The profit and loss structure of short-term holders reflects an investor psychology different from traditional price trends, suggesting that the current market is not simply in a downtrend but is instead in a phase of alternating correction and recovery.

💡 Strategy Highlights

The realized price of Bitcoin at $81,000 serves as a major turning point for short-term traders. Whether the price can break above this level should be the key observation point.

📘 Terminology Explanation

• Short-term holders: Investors who typically buy coins within 155 days

• Realized price: The average price at which the holder bought the coins

• NUPL: An indicator reflecting investors’ unrealized gains or losses

TP AI Notes

This article summary is generated using TokenPost.ai’s foundational language model. The main content may be omitted or may differ from actual facts.