#非农数据超预期

From historical experience, divergence in non-farm payrolls often serves as a "buffer" for risk assets.

Looking back at history, whenever non-farm data shows a combination of "moderate job gains, rising unemployment rate, and falling wages," risk assets tend not to decline immediately. Instead, they often enter a period of valuation recovery. The reason is simple: such data weakens the logic of "continued policy tightening" but does not trigger panic about "economic recession."

This is especially true for the crypto market. Crypto assets do not rely directly on employment figures but are highly dependent on liquidity expectations. When the market begins to believe that "the tightest period is over," risk appetite gradually recovers.

Goldman Sachs mentioned that "short-term factors are more disruptive," but this statement is not necessarily bearish. Because if short-term factors fade and the trend remains cooling, it will further reinforce expectations of easing; if data rebounds, it also indicates economic resilience, and the market does not need to panic.

The real danger lies in a sudden collapse of employment or a resurgence of inflation, neither of which are currently happening.

Divergent data itself may instead serve as a buffer zone for risk assets.