Tonight at 21:30, the US CPI data will be released. How important is this number? To put it simply, it directly determines whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates or hold steady, thereby influencing the overall trend of the crypto market.

First, understand what CPI is—simply put, it’s the US inflation rate index. When the Federal Reserve decides on interest rate policies, this data is the most critical reference.

There are three possible scenarios tonight, let’s analyze them one by one:

**Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations (e.g., above 2.7%)**

This is bad news. The market will react immediately: signs of inflation rebound, the Fed’s rate cut plans may be delayed, and a rate hike cannot be ruled out again. What are the consequences? The US dollar will appreciate, US stocks will decline, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will likely be dragged down as well.

**Scenario 2: Data below expectations (e.g., below 2.7%)**

This is good news. Inflation is effectively controlled, giving the Fed more confidence to continue cutting rates. The US dollar will depreciate, US stocks will rise, and assets like Bitcoin often rebound or even surge rapidly.

**Scenario 3: Data in line with expectations (around 2.7%)**

This is a neutral to slightly positive scenario. The market will feel “no surprises,” interpreting it as inflation being within controllable range. There may be sharp volatility initially, but the trend will likely continue as before, such as a continued upward rebound.

Now, the question is—how do you plan to operate?

**Aggressive traders’ approach**: As soon as the data is released, if it’s below expectations, go all-in long; if it’s above expectations, immediately switch to short. The potential gains are high, but so are the risks.

**Moderate traders’ approach**: Let the market react for about half an hour, wait for the initial wave of emotion to subside, then look for relatively stable entry opportunities. This can help avoid being hit by sudden extreme volatility.

**Wait-and-see traders’ approach**: With so many variables in the news, simply clear your positions and wait a day to see how things develop. Once the market direction becomes clearer, re-enter.

Which camp do you belong to? Leave your choice below and share your reasoning—what direction do you think the market will take next?