2026-01-14 14:20:54

This wave of the market, the key is not political rhetoric, but the shift in macro expectations.

Recently, Trump has been discussing Federal Reserve policies again, which has instantly stirred the market—U.S. stocks are volatile, and the crypto circle is full of various voices. But if you ask me, how much impact can this really have? Honestly, it needs to be looked at separately.

I've been in this circle for so many years and have seen many ups and downs. Many people think the crypto market has an independent trend, but that's not the case. Currently, the correlation between crypto assets and Federal Reserve interest rate policies is surprisingly strong—this is not conspiracy theory, but market reality.

Why is that? The logic is straightforward: interest rates determine liquidity, and liquidity determines how risk assets move. Once the Fed starts a rate-cutting cycle, the market is like opening a "water release valve." Hot money that can't get yields from traditional finance will flow heavily into high-risk assets like crypto, causing valuations to rise; conversely, in a high-interest-rate environment, capital tends to flow back into U.S. Treasuries and bank deposits, and the crypto market relies on internal rotation of existing funds, naturally creating pressure.

Historical data is there. During the Fed's rate hike cycle in 2022, the overall decline in the crypto market exceeded 60%. After the rate cut began in 2024, the market rebounded quickly. This is not coincidence, but the mechanism at work.

So the question is—can Trump's statements really change the Fed's pace? The waters here are actually very deep…

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DeFiCaffeinator

· 01-14 14:48

Damn, a rate cut is really the best, political shows are all fake

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rekt_but_vibing

· 01-14 14:40

Lower interest rates will only attract hot money to flow in genuinely; Trump's mouth is of no use.

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StillBuyingTheDip

· 01-14 14:35

Once the expectation of rate cuts shifts, hot money rushes into cryptocurrencies. This logic is indeed clear. To put it simply, no matter how fierce Trump is, he can't change the Federal Reserve's pace. Liquidity is the real boss; when interest rates move, the market moves. This rebound is actually the dividend of the rate cut cycle, nothing mysterious about it. Politicians are always arrogant, but in the end, capital makes the decisions, haha. As U.S. Treasury yields go down, money has nowhere to go, naturally pouring into high-risk assets. I remember the decline in 2022 was caused by interest rate hikes; this time, it's the same logic in reverse. So instead of listening to Trump's nonsense, it's better to watch the Federal Reserve's statements. It seems most people are still paying attention to the wrong place. But on the other hand, how long this rebound can last is hard to say. Macroeconomic expectations, once they shift, are hard to turn back.

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SerNgmi

· 01-14 14:35

Lowering interest rates is the real move; politicians' blabber is useless. Watching how the Federal Reserve acts is the real key.

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DoomCanister

· 01-14 14:31

Damn, another wave of rate cut expectations, hot money is really coming Basically, it's all about the Federal Reserve. No matter how loudly Trump shouts, it won't change the hard logic of liquidity Rate cuts = liquidity injection = coin prices soar. This chain has been verified before, and it's played out again in 2024 Interest rates are the true boss, political rhetoric is just a smokescreen Feels like this time is different, hot money is really looking for a place to go Honestly, instead of listening to their arguments, it's better to watch the US Treasury yields—that's the real signal Once the rate cut cycle begins, retail investors will be harvested again, classic套路

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MetaDreamer

· 01-14 14:26

Well said, liquidity is the key, political blabber is useless When interest rates move, crypto moves too; this logic is rock solid The rate cut cycle is the real secret to getting rich quickly; everything else is noise No matter how much Trump yells, he can't change the Federal Reserve's fate; the market has its own rules The key is to determine when to confirm the pace of rate cuts; don't get caught up in these illusions

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LiquidatedDreams

· 01-14 14:21

Basically, it's whether the Fed is loosening or not; everything else is nonsense.

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