Hidden Hands of the Meme Coin Bull Market: Geopolitical Factors Drive DOGE·SHIB·PEPE

Is the Venezuela Card the Real Reason Behind the Cryptocurrency Rally?

The reason the meme coin market has been buzzing for a week is not just a simple technical rebound. As market attention shifts to the potential impact of U.S. geopolitical moves on the cryptocurrency supply structure, major meme coins such as DOGE(·SHIB)·PEPE( have shown concurrent strength. In particular, an analysis suggests that Venezuela’s estimated “offshore reserves” of about 600,000 BTC could lead to a decrease in circulating supply and tighter supply-demand dynamics, stimulating spot purchase demand.

The core issue is the conversion of crude oil payment currency. It is estimated that Venezuela has been receiving payments in cryptocurrencies like Tether)USDT( instead of the Petro dollar, amounting to roughly $10 billion to $15 billion, and there is speculation that they may have converted some of this into Bitcoin to avoid wallet freezes. Considering records of gold swaps from 2018 to 2020, there is a market sentiment that Venezuela’s shadow Bitcoin holdings could be substantial.

DOGE Rally Breaks Technical Resistance, Entering a New Phase

DOGE) is currently trading around $0.14 based on recent data, and its five consecutive days of gains over the past week clearly signal a technical bullish trend. After recovering the 50-day moving average(0.14339 dollars) on the chart, it has surpassed the psychological resistance at $0.15, progressing through a descending wedge breakout rally.

Bullish Scenario: The upper target is set at the 200-day moving average of $0.18202, which overlaps with the historical supply zone of $0.18100~$0.18500.

• RSI at 65, still below overbought territory (70)
• MACD green histogram expanding, indicating accelerated bullish momentum

Downside Risks: Falling below $0.14399 could threaten the breakout’s validity, with a potential retest of $0.13.

SHIB Breaks Resistance Since October…50-Day Moving Average Holds the Key

SHIB( has attempted to break out of a downward channel formed over the past two months, with a rally of about 12% over four trading days. Notably, it broke through a long-term resistance trendline that had been tested on October 13 and November 11, marking a significant technical milestone.

However, it entered a short-term correction phase after dropping more than 1% on Monday. The key in this phase is whether the 50-day moving average)0.00000821 dollars( can hold.

Extension Scenario: If the rally continues, the next target is the 200-day moving average of $0.00001065.

• RSI approaching 65, nearing overbought levels
• MACD crossing above zero line with continuous green histogram, strengthening bullish momentum

Downside Risk: If the 50-day moving average is broken, a retracement to the October 10 low of $0.00000678 is possible.

PEPE, After Rapid Market Cap Surge, Faces Correction…200-Day Moving Average as a Critical Level

PEPE) surged 77% over four days but entered a correction with about a 2% decline on Monday. The current price is trading in the $0.00 range(24 hours -8.57%), interpreted as a phase of “top pressure” from the previous rally.

A significant resistance level is the 200-day moving average of $0.00000749. Whether this level is clearly broken upward will likely determine the next direction.

Bullish Scenario: Breaking through the 200-day moving average could open room for further gains toward the September 25 low of $0.00000886.

• MACD shows a sharp bullish signal, indicating momentum acceleration
• RSI at 79, in deep overbought territory, but buying sentiment remains strong

Correction Scenario: If a deeper retracement occurs, retesting the support-turned-resistance zone at $0.00000650 is possible.

Meme Coin Trends, Converging Through Supply and Demand Dynamics

Ultimately, the core of this rally lies in the geopolitical “anticipated supply reduction.” If Venezuela’s Bitcoin reserves are absorbed into U.S. strategic reserves, the market’s circulating supply would decrease, leading to tighter supply-demand conditions. Meme coins are riding this psychological trend, and whether each coin can break through its technical resistance levels will likely determine the sustainability of the rally.