## Precious Metal Prices Diverge, US Section 232 Tariff Decision Will Be a Key Variable

Since early 2026, the precious metals market has shown a differentiated trend. Among them, palladium performed the best, with a year-to-date increase of 10%, silver up 7%, and platinum up 6%, all surpassing gold's 3% gain. Looking at a one-year cycle, palladium has accumulated a 93% increase, silver 157%, platinum 136%, and gold 68%. The strong performance of these three precious metals has become a market focus.

Behind this rally, the announcement date of the US Section 232 tariff investigation results has attracted much attention. Citibank expects the major decision to be announced as early as January 10, and the outcome could directly impact the subsequent trends of silver, platinum, and palladium. However, analysts also point out that given the variety of commodities involved, there is a possibility of indefinite postponement of the final result. If a delay occurs, market uncertainty expectations will further boost the prices of these precious metals.

**Under Section 232, three metals face very different prospects**

Among silver, platinum, and palladium, palladium is considered the most likely to face tariffs. Citibank analysis believes that the US has the potential to increase palladium supply domestically, and related industries have strong political lobbying influence. These factors increase the probability of palladium being included in the tariff list. There is an estimated preparation period of about 15 days before the policy decision, which could trigger a "rush" in the market, creating short-term trading opportunities.

In contrast, the probability of silver avoiding tariffs is higher. The US's dependence on silver imports is profound, and it is difficult to achieve domestic substitution in the short term. This supports the possibility of silver receiving an exemption. However, because of this, once an exemption is confirmed, silver prices may face a correction pressure. Market expectations will shift from policy uncertainty support to adjustments after actual realization.

The outlook for platinum remains uncertain. Based on current information, there is no clear conclusion on its tariff classification.

**Copper Market's Section 232 Outlook Extends into the Second Half of 2026**

The Trump administration instructed the US Department of Commerce to submit an assessment report on the US copper market by the end of June 2026, marking an extension of the Section 232 investigation into the second quarter. Most analysts believe that this quarter will be a critical turning point for copper market policy.

Goldman Sachs's research framework outlines three possible scenarios. In the baseline scenario (probability 45%), the US is most likely to announce a 15% tariff on refined copper in mid-2026, but the implementation will be delayed until 2027, providing the market with ample adaptation time. There is also a 40% chance that the tariff decision itself will be postponed until 2027 before being officially announced.

If the tariff decision is delayed, London Metal Exchange copper prices will face bearish factors. Such delays often indicate that the US's strategic copper reserve activities have reached a certain saturation point, and market stockpiling enthusiasm begins to cool, exerting downward pressure on copper prices.