Bitcoin's "consolidation game" before breaking through the key resistance — revealing institutional true attitude from the 92K level

Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,910 (latest data), up 1.95%, but the market faces an interesting paradox: bullish momentum is clear, but the breakout strength is limited. What is really hidden behind this?

What game is the market playing?

Rather than saying Bitcoin is “pulling back,” it’s more accurate to say it’s carefully accumulating. Last Wednesday, (January 7), BTC briefly fell to around $92,800 but then quickly rebounded, now approaching the psychological level of $100,000 again. This “not going down” performance signals: the market is digesting rather than selling off.

Analyst George Mandres from trading firm XBTO posed a core question: when traditional assets like stocks and gold are hitting all-time highs, should Bitcoin continue to rise in sync, or should it undergo a pullback under the four-year cycle pattern? Currently, the market has chosen an “ambiguous” answer — neither rapid ascent nor deep correction.

Why? Because profits and losses are resetting. Mandres pointed out that as we start 2026, investors’ PNLs reset to zero, and they are reallocating funds, seeking risk-reward opportunities. This explains why we see:

Institutional funds flowing back into BTC

According to the latest data, on January 2nd, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $471 million in a single day — the largest single-day net inflow since December 17 of last year. Compared to the continued outflows at the end of 2025, this shift is significant.

This is not just a mechanical reaction to “year-end funds,” but also reflects institutional reassessment of risk assets. In the absence of financial pressures, institutional investors are gradually increasing their allocation to high-risk assets like Bitcoin. The continued inflow of ETF funds indicates a shift in market perception — from weeks of waiting to actual action.

Market sentiment has already shifted

Look at this data: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to 49 points, approaching the “greed” zone, reaching a new high since October 2025. This is an intuitive reflection of market confidence.

The implication of the index rising is clear: investors are preparing for a more sustained demand for BTC. If the index continues upward into the “greed” zone, it could confirm stronger intrinsic demand, supporting continued buying in subsequent trading days.

Ethereum is playing a different game

Unlike Bitcoin’s “steady and cautious” approach, Ethereum shows characteristics of position resetting. ETH is currently trading at $3,370, with open interest in futures decreasing — indicating that institutions are engaging in “deleveraging.”

But importantly: this process is not accompanied by spot selling. Bradley Park, founder of DNTV Research, believes that the current pullback resembles more a “loss of momentum” rather than a “structural breakdown.” Positions are being reset to levels seen in July 2025 — once new funds flow back, Ethereum might have better upward conditions.

What the technicals reveal

Resistance at $92,000, support at $85,000 — Bitcoin is bouncing within this range. The technical signals are:

RSI: Continues to operate above 50, indicating buying momentum still dominates. As long as the upward slope persists, it will reinforce short-term bullish pressure.

TRIX: Shows a steady positive slope, gradually approaching zero. This suggests selling pressure is weakening, and the market is in a transition phase. A bullish crossover above zero would make the buy signal even clearer.

Key levels interpretation:

• $92,956 — recent high; if buyers can stabilize and consolidate here, it could lay the foundation for a short-term upward trend.
• $89,235 — corresponding to the 50-week simple moving average; as long as price stays near this, sideways trading will continue to dominate.
• $85,652 — the most critical support; a breakdown here could reactivate the 2025 downtrend.

Glassnode’s view: “Consolidation and rotation”

Latest on-chain data shows options markets are actively de-risking (decreasing open interest, rising volatility expectations), but US spot ETF funds are turning back into net inflows. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon actually points to the same conclusion: the market is undergoing risk reorganization rather than full risk aversion.

In other words: the bulls are not dead, and the bears are not fully in control. The market is waiting for a decisive direction — a breakout above 92K or a retest of 85K.

What to watch most right now?

1. $92,000 level — whether it can be effectively broken will determine the short-term dominant tone.
2. ETF fund flows — continued net inflows will reinforce bullish expectations.
3. Greed index trend — if it continues upward into the “greed” zone, it will confirm further market confidence recovery.
4. Institutional futures positions — whether they can leverage back on spot positions.

Bitcoin’s current performance is like a savvy investor testing the opponent’s bottom line — institutional funds are entering, sentiment is recovering, and technicals are improving, but it’s hesitant to make a decisive move. Once the $92K breakout is confirmed, this rally’s acceleration might just be beginning.