BTC surpasses US$ 96,000 in early 2026: geopolitical pressure and mixed liquidity signals

Bitcoin started 2026 with strong momentum, successively surpassing psychological levels that marked the final trading sessions of the previous year. The world’s leading cryptocurrency reached US$ 96.91K according to the Bitstamp terminal quote, reflecting a recovery movement amid complex macroeconomic factors. This advance occurs simultaneously with the strengthening of other defensive assets, with spot gold rising 2.5% to US$ 4,455 per ounce and indices such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing gains close to 1%.

The macroeconomic scenario and appetite for scarce assets

Cryptocurrency movements are part of a broader context of demand for protection and scarcity. According to analysis from Kobeissi Letter, holders of tangible assets are being rewarded while geopolitical volatility remains high. In this environment, bitcoin positions itself as an asset with a finite supply, attracting investors seeking value preservation.

The rapid approval of buy positions in recent trading sessions indicates that the market has begun to price in positive factors for the period. With the first weeks of 2026 still underway, sentiment remains optimistic among analysts and traders.

Technical breakouts pave the way for a new phase

From a technical perspective, bitcoin has consolidated an important pattern by surpassing both the 50-day exponential moving average and the annual opening level around US$ 93,500. Trader Max Rager highlights that this series of technical confirmations reinforces the bullish structure of the 12-hour chart.

Rager points out that solid support above US$ 94,000 could catalyze a move toward US$ 100,000. Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, describes the current level as the “final obstacle” before a possible breakout toward six digits. For Van de Poppe, although there is no guarantee of a linear and immediate advance, the window of opportunity may open over the coming weeks as volume dynamics evolve.

The uncertainty of depths: mempool, liquidity, and Willy Woo’s warning

Despite positive technical signals, experienced analysts like Willy Woo sound the alarm on fundamental liquidity issues. Woo notes that although the mempool (pending transaction queue) and transaction fees indicate activity on the network, order books show little depth compared to previous periods.

Glassnode corroborates this concern by pointing out that spot trading volumes are at their lowest levels since late 2023. This combination suggests that the current rally may be driven more by seasonal factors and institutional demand than by solid user engagement on the network.

Woo also warns that without a significant increase in on-chain transactions, the price movement risks dissipating quickly if external scenarios stabilize. The sustainability of the advance will therefore depend on a gradual transformation of this market structure.

Strategy reaffirms its thesis of aggressive accumulation

On the corporate front, Strategy began January by reinforcing its position as the world’s largest public holder of bitcoin. The company acquired 1,283 units for approximately US$ 116 million, raising its crypto asset holdings to 673,783 bitcoins, valued at around US$ 62.6 billion at current prices.

Strategy’s total average acquisition cost remains at US$ 75,026 per bitcoin, demonstrating a buying strategy that spans market cycles. Michael Saylor, founder and CEO, stated that the company also increased its dollar cash reserves to US$ 2.25 billion, using funds obtained from selling shares in the North American capital markets.

This liquidity boost was strategically structured to ensure dividend payments, debt interest payments, and working capital for future bitcoin acquisitions, regardless of short-term fluctuations.

Institutional concentration as a pillar of the scarcity argument

Strategy’s stance has inspired other corporations worldwide. Metaplanet, a Japanese publicly listed company, has already established itself as the fourth largest public holder of the currency, with 35,102 bitcoins on its balance sheet valued at approximately US$ 3.25 billion.

According to aggregated data, publicly traded companies worldwide hold about 1.09 million bitcoins, representing approximately 5.21% of the total circulating supply. This institutional concentration reinforces the narrative of absolute scarcity underpinning analysts’ projections of the rally’s continuation.

Risks to maintaining the upward trend

Exitpump, a market commentator, signals that the definitive support for this movement will depend on the consistent entry of real buyers into the spot market. Without genuine volume support, bitcoin remains vulnerable to bull traps that could result in quick liquidations if external factors stabilize.

Technical analysis suggests exhaustion is near if the US$ 94,000 level is not defended by robust buy orders in upcoming trading sessions. Although early 2026 shows widespread optimism, the reduced market depth remains a critical variable capable of reversing the scenario in the short term.

The consensus among analysts indicates that January offers a promising opportunity, but confirmation of the move toward US$ 100,000 will still depend on how the market responds to technical and liquidity pressures in the coming days.