Looking at this wave of ETH行情, the 1-hour level contraction degree is really quite extreme.

**Technical Clues**

BOLL(20,2) upper and lower bands are now only about 5.3 points apart, the tightest this week (upper band 3349.19, lower band 3343.84). The price is bouncing between the middle band and MA7 (3346.83), in simple terms, bulls and bears haven't decided the winner in this narrow corridor of 3346-3349.

MACD here is interesting—there's a slight death cross above the zero line (DIF:0.88, DEA:1.22), but the green histogram has shrunk to -0.69, and importantly, it hasn't expanded downward. This "accumulation without release" pattern is called momentum buildup; in plain language, the bears are losing strength, and a single bullish candle could trigger a golden cross.

The defensive level is clear: if 3343.84 holds, the structure is safe. Once volume breaks through 3349.2, 3358 (the previous hourly resistance) will become the first fueling station for an upward move.

**On-Chain Money Flow Reveals the Truth**

In the past 6 hours, exchange wallets have transferred over 28,000 ETH to cold storage addresses. This is no small move—it's a typical "accumulation and consolidation," with whales quietly scooping up, and the selling pressure from exchanges decreasing.

Perpetual contract funding rates remain slightly positive (you can verify yourself), market sentiment is very stable, and there's no sign of crazy leverage FOMO. Overall health supports a rally.

**Catalysts from News**

Tonight after 21:00 Beijing time, Ethereum core developers will discuss the progress of the Pectra upgrade testnet deployment. Historically, technical positive signals before major upgrades are often discounted by the market, but if the meeting releases positive news, it could be the spark that ignites a powder keg.

**What to Do**

Wait for the price to stabilize above 3350, and when a 1-hour candle closes with a bullish body >3 points, you can go long, with a stop-loss at 3342.

First target is 3375 (the resistance at the 30-day MA), second target is 3405 (the previous high, psychological barrier).

Risk control must not be relaxed: if it unexpectedly falls below 3340 accompanied by expanding MACD green histogram, the short-term bullish logic is broken, and you should cut losses and exit.

The market has a strict rule—those who remain patient in extreme compression will always reap big rewards. Now is not the time to panic, but to hold the trigger like a hunter waiting for the prey to jump out.