2026-01-15 14:00:22

#比特币2026年行情展望 What will be the actual price of Bitcoin in 2026? This question has now really split into two completely opposite camps.

The bullish side's logic is very clear: the integration of central bank digital currency systems and the Bitcoin ecosystem is deepening, and large institutions' allocation to digital assets has broken through the 5% threshold that traditionally defines assets. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, once said that this is no longer just an investment choice but a reshuffling of the global reserve asset landscape. Based on this trend, some predict that Bitcoin will surge to $180,000 in Q3 2026.

But the bears also have their reasons. Recently, the new SEC chairman in the US stated that "90% of crypto projects will naturally be eliminated," while China, the EU, and India are all pushing forward with central bank digital currency systems, which could squeeze the survival space for traditional cryptocurrencies. Technical analyst Mark C. Williams is more pessimistic, believing that if the liquidity bubble bursts in 2025, Bitcoin could drop below $20,000, returning to its fundamental role as "digital gold."

On-chain data offers some clues: the holdings of the top ten wallets increased from 5.3% in 2024 to 9.8% in early 2026, indicating that the battle between whales and retail investors is really intense. Another hidden risk is that recent breakthroughs in quantum computing have theoretically questioned the security of the SHA-256 algorithm for the first time, posing an unprecedented challenge to Bitcoin's underlying design.

Ultimately, the price of Bitcoin in 2026 will be determined by three forces: government regulation constraints, institutional capital inflows, and the faith of believers. Whichever of these three forces prevails will directly influence whether the price soars or crashes. Regardless, Bitcoin has already changed everyone's understanding of money, trust, and freedom. 2026 is essentially a multiple-choice question facing everyone. $ETH

BTC-0.54%

ETH-0.92%

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MetaverseLandlady

· 3h ago

Whales have absorbed 9.8%, and this wave of retail investors is probably about to be harvested again. --- 180,000? Dream on. A single statement from regulators will directly cut below 20,000. --- Quantum computing cracking SHA-256? That’s truly the real black swan. --- Basically, it’s a gamble on whether the government or institutions have the stronger hand. Retail investors can only follow the trend. --- The central bank’s CBDC promotion, this exertion on the crypto circle is really underestimated. --- Three forces are competing, and in the end, the biggest losers are still us small retail investors, haha. --- Five years ago, we were calling for integration, and now we’re still calling for it. This matter probably won’t be far off. --- If you want 180,000, the premise is to survive until Q3 2026. --- The SEC’s one statement could eliminate 90% of projects. Does that mean the remaining 10% are safe? --- Whales holding 10% more of the supply, does that indicate the top is approaching?

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MetaverseVagabond

· 3h ago

180,000 or 20,000, honestly they are all casinos. Whales are eating retail investors' chips. Quantum computing is the real danger; if SHA-256 is broken, Bitcoin is finished. With the launch of central bank digital currencies, does BTC still have a chance? It's another multiple-choice question, and I just want to choose the "All-in" option. How much is faith worth? Can it be exchanged for electricity bills? Haha. 2026 is truly a watershed moment; it feels like either take off or go to zero, there's no middle ground. That SEC statement sounds like a death sentence for 90% of projects.

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BugBountyHunter

· 3h ago

180,000 dollars? Wake up, buddy. The SEC says 90% of projects are going to die, and this is still going up? What a joke. Whales are frantically accumulating, and we're retail investors still buying in. This game is really not for the faint-hearted. Once quantum computing is deployed, SHA-256 will be rendered obsolete, rewriting Bitcoin's security foundation? That's a bit terrifying. Instead of predicting prices, better ask yourself if you can hold until 2026. The $20,000 bottom line, I bet it will break.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 3h ago

Whale holdings have increased from 5.3% to 9.8%, the pace is quite aggressive. The SEC says 90% of projects will be eliminated; it seems the bears might have a point. I've heard of 180,000 and 20,000, but I don't know who will win. Does quantum computing threaten SHA-256? This is really a matter of life and death now. Basically, it's a game of policy, capital, and faith—who has the most cards by 2026 will determine the outcome. The integration of central bank digital currencies and Bitcoin? That logic is a bit fragile. The battle among the top ten wallets is so intense, how can retail investors survive? If the liquidity bubble bursts, returning directly to digital gold, then it’s no fun anymore. Institutional allocation breaking the 5% threshold sounds impressive, but does it really change the game? Instead of guessing the price, it’s better to watch how the government regulation hand swings.

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GateUser-6bc33122

· 3h ago

180,000 or 20,000, honestly it all depends on who has more chips Whale holdings skyrocketed from 5.3% to 9.8%, isn't that telling us that the big players are laying out their plans? Quantum computing is indeed a bit uncertain, but there's no need to panic excessively Those bears keep singing bearish tunes every day, but I want to see if they actually hold any coins The gambling regulations are becoming clearer, and the relationship between central bank digital currencies and Bitcoin is more complicated than we imagined

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MoneyBurnerSociety

· 3h ago

180,000 or 20,000, I'm betting that my principal will go to zero first haha

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LiquidatedThrice

· 3h ago

Whales have absorbed up to 9.8%, retail investors are still in a daze, this is the gap. --- 18,000 or 20,000, honestly, who the hell can predict accurately? It's all gambler's mentality. --- Quantum computing is really terrifying. If SHA-256 truly collapses, Bitcoin would have to be completely rewritten. Just thinking about it is mind-blowing. --- Once the central bank's CBDC is promoted, the days of traditional currencies will definitely be tough. This wave of regulation can't be avoided. --- I just want to know how many people will still be able to hold on until 2026. Not being liquidated is already a win. --- Both bullish and bearish predictions can be made convincingly. The key still depends on who has larger funds. Talking about faith is too vague. --- The proportion of five institutions exceeds 5%. Is this what you call institutional entry? Feels still too early. --- Having had three sleepwalking experiences as a retail investor, now I just want to sit back and win passively, but next year's market is really unpredictable.

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