#美国就业数据不及预期 The Federal Reserve Power Struggle: Crypto Markets Bet on a New Trend

Powell's position is becoming increasingly precarious. In mid-January, the U.S. Department of Justice launched an investigation into him, initially interpreted as a tough move by Trump to oust the Fed—yet the market's reaction was completely unexpected.

Insider information suggests that there was actually a private understanding between Trump and Powell: as long as Powell's term ends in May, he would voluntarily resign, and Trump would abandon plans to overhaul the Fed building's renovation budget. It sounds like a deal, but this move by the Justice Department has directly disrupted the situation.

Data speaks the loudest. Market expectations for Powell to step down before the end of May dropped from 74% to 45%, and the probability of resignation before the end of the year fell from 85% to 62%—more ironically, the likelihood of him remaining until 2028 has actually increased.

The situation among candidates is even more interesting. Haskett, favored by Trump, is losing popularity, while hawkish representative Wosh is taking advantage of the opportunity. The stronger the regulatory stance, the more market investors believe such a candidate can stabilize the situation. This precisely illustrates a phenomenon: in the face of policy uncertainty, markets tend to bet on leaders with a "tough hand."

The real paradox here is— the more Trump pressures Powell, the more likely Powell is to stubbornly hold on as an ordinary board member. The Fed's authority has never been changed by public opinion battles. This political tug-of-war has just begun, and the outcome is already doomed to fail. $ZEN $DASH and similar alternative assets are most sensitive to these shifts in policy direction.