2026 Bitcoin Market Structural Cleanup: From Defense to Active Offense

Key Points Overview

Bitcoin experienced a historic market “shakeout” as it entered 2026. As of the latest data, BTC price has broken through $97.04K, with a 24-hour increase of 1.88%. This cleansing is not just a price adjustment but a comprehensive reset of the entire derivatives market—option open interest has historically decreased by 45%, futures leverage has been fully released, and institutional spot ETF inflows have restarted.

The market is shifting from passive defense to selective risk-taking, backed by a healthier, more transparent trading structure.

Pressure Release: Early Signs of a Bottom

The “surrender” moment for long-term holders

In early January 2026, Bitcoin broke out of a long consolidation around $87K, surging to $94.4K within days, an approximately 8.5% increase. The key driver behind this rebound is a seemingly counterintuitive phenomenon—a significant decline in profit-taking pressure.

By Q4 2025, daily realized profits once exceeded $1B. But by the end of December, this number had fallen to $183.8M (7-day average). What does this mean? It indicates that long-held retail investors and funds have given up on further selling. Pressure has been released, and a rebound has naturally followed.

The next hurdle: breaking $99.1K

However, following the rebound comes a more challenging issue—a reversal of supply pressure.

Bitcoin’s most dense buy zone historically lies between $92.1K and $117.4K. Recently, traders have aggressively built positions near the highs, experiencing a plunge from ATH to $80K. Now, with the rebound, they see hope for breaking even. It’s easy to imagine that once prices approach their cost basis, selling pressure will surge.

This is why the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($99.1K) has become a key level. As long as Bitcoin cannot stabilize above this level, it indicates that new buyers’ confidence remains insufficient, and the market is still dominated by trapped holders. According to the STH-MVRV indicator, new entrants are still about 5% in the red (rebounding from 0.79 to 0.95). Only when this indicator exceeds 1.0 can we say true confidence is rebuilding.

Subtle Changes in Institutional Attitudes

Corporate Reserves: Unreliable Friends

In recent months, corporate reserves (especially some tech companies) have been seen as Bitcoin’s “saviors.” Their large-scale buying during downturns has helped halt declines. But data shows this support is far from sustainable—it is event-driven and opportunistic, not a strategic long-term accumulation.

By 2026, the sustained buying power of these reserves has weakened, and intermittent large inflows can no longer be the main market driver. Therefore, we should not overly rely on corporate reserves to push for a new rally.

Spot ETFs: Restarting the Accumulation

Contrasting the waning of corporate reserves is the “revival” of US spot ETF inflows. Persistent net outflows at the end of 2025 caused concern, but after the new year, signs of net inflows reappeared. This indicates institutional investors are re-evaluating Bitcoin’s value—not through aggressive all-in positions, but through cautious, phased accumulation.

This shift is crucial because it means institutions shorting are starting to turn around, and incremental capital at the boundary is returning.

The “Whack-a-Mole” Game in Derivatives Markets

Futures: From Extremes to Moderation

The extreme deleveraging at year-end has concluded. Total futures open interest, which once topped $50B, has fallen from its historical high and is now slowly climbing—yet without signs of frantic chasing. Participants are cautiously rebuilding positions in the $80K-$90K range, reflecting a shift from “over-leverage panic” to “rational gradual participation.”

Current open interest remains well below historical peaks, indicating a significant reduction in short-term liquidation risk.

Options: A New Starting Point After Historic Reset

The options expiry event on December 26, 2025, was epic—over 45% of open contracts were cleared in a single day, dropping from 579,258 BTC to 316,472 BTC.

This major cleanup means that passive, hedging, and outdated positions have been thoroughly eliminated. Traders now face a “blank slate”—all new positions represent current genuine intent, free from historical baggage.

Volatility and Sentiment: A “Three-Layer” Interpretation

Implied Volatility: Restlessness Near the Bottom

During the holidays, implied volatility touched lows not seen since late September. But after the new year, with new bullish participants entering, the volatility curve was gently lifted—across various maturities from one week to six months, it contracted within a narrow 42.6%-45.4% range.

This indicates the market holds no extreme optimism or pessimism about the future, but rather a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

Skew Indicator: Defensive to Offensive Shift

More reflective of market psychology is the skew indicator. Over the past month, the premium for put options relative to calls has significantly narrowed. What does this mean? It suggests traders are gradually abandoning excessive downside hedging and building more upside positions.

Defensive insurance demand is waning, while the desire to participate offensively is rising.

Call Option Flows: The First “Vote” of the New Year

Recent 7-day options flow:

• Call buys account for 30.8% of total volume
• Call sells account for 25.7%
• Put activity accounts for 43.5%

What does this combination indicate? It shows that short-sellers are using higher volatility to unwind positions (selling Calls), while longs are actively building positions. The moderate put activity suggests the market is no longer paying sky-high premiums for “possible crashes.”

The Psychological Battle at Key Price Levels

$95K-$104K: Short Gamma Trap for Traders

Derivatives traders are currently net short gamma in the $95K-$104K range. This level is crucial—when the spot price rises within this zone, traders are forced to hedge in futures or spot markets, which mechanically amplifies upward momentum.

This is the opposite of last year’s “long gamma suppression.” The current structure favors bulls.

The “Patience Game” of Call Premiums

Tracking the premium of $95K call options reveals interesting dynamics:

• On January 1, when spot was around $87K, call buying began to accumulate
• As prices approached the local high of $94.4K, buying accelerated
• Afterwards, a plateau appeared, but no large sell-offs

What does this tell us? It indicates that bullish investors are patiently holding positions rather than rushing to take profits. Their logic is clear: they buy these calls not to profit at $94.4K, but because they believe in further upside potential.

Conclusion: A Clean Foundation and New Possibilities

The 2026 Bitcoin market scene can be summarized in one word: Rebirth.

From despair at $80K to rebound at $97K, the market has cleared:

• Long-term holders’ selling pressure
• Leverage traders’ passive positions
• Outdated options contracts

Meanwhile, it has accumulated:

• Moderate institutional spot buying
• Rational rebuilding by derivatives participants
• Patient longs holding bullish positions

Pressure has dissipated, structures have improved, and sentiment has shifted—these factors together create a relatively healthy foundation for Bitcoin’s next phase. Although short-term resistance at $99.1K remains, the overall market framework has shifted from “escaping” to “participating.”

2026 is just beginning, but Bitcoin’s story is already becoming more interesting.