Ark Invest: Bitcoin is entering an institutionalized and low-volatility cycle, still expecting Bitcoin to reach at least $300,000 by 2030.

On January 15, according to CoinDesk, Ark Invest analyst and portfolio manager David Puell stated that the next phase of Bitcoin will no longer mainly depend on whether investors “believe” in this asset, but more on how much exposure they are willing to allocate and through which investment tools to participate. With the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the rapid development of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has crossed an important threshold and entered a mature institutional phase. The combined holdings of ETFs and digital asset treasuries have reached approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, far exceeding expectations, and have become one of the main drivers influencing price trends in 2025, a trend that may continue until 2026. As the amount of Bitcoin absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries exceeds expectations, the market is entering a more institutionalized phase with lower volatility. Ark Invest remains confident in its long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin. According to Ark’s published valuation model, its forecast for Bitcoin’s price in 2030 is “around $300,000 in a bear market scenario; approximately $710,000 in a baseline scenario; and about $1,500,000 in a bull market scenario.” David Puell stated that under the “digital gold” narrative and institutional adoption, the company still expects Bitcoin to reach between $300,000 and $1,500,000 by 2030. He also mentioned that as volatility decreases and drawdowns narrow, Bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to investors with lower risk appetite in the next cycle.