Cryptocurrency markets always ignore risks in their狂欢, but this time is different—risks are knocking on the door.

Recently, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs has become a "sleeping bomb" in the market. This should have been the most important economic event at the start of 2026, but the market's reaction has been冷淡. Even more ironic, the ruling originally scheduled for January 9th was suddenly delayed, and this uncertainty has made the situation more complicated.

Based on current information, the Supreme Court is about to rule on whether Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are合法. Interestingly, the market assigns a 76% probability that Trump will lose the case. It seems everyone "knows it well," but asset prices have not fully reflected this expectation. Why?

**Key numbers you need to know:** The current tariffs contribute approximately $30 billion per month to the U.S. Treasury, with an annual scale of up to $350 billion. If these tariffs are overturned, the impact will definitely not be a "small thing that can be ignored."

**Two major market misconceptions**

One misconception is that even if the current tariffs become invalid, the Trump administration can quickly switch to alternative measures seamlessly. It sounds good, but policy shifts are never seamless—there will always be a window period.

Another more outrageous misconception: many believe that this $350 billion accounts for a微不足道的比例 in the U.S. fiscal budget and has little impact. In reality, this money has a direct impact on market liquidity, exchange rate expectations, and risk premiums.

Can the Trump administration continue to impose tariffs of 10% to 40% on countries around the world in the name of "national security"? The answer depends on the Supreme Court, and this answer will reshape market pricing. As liquidity-sensitive assets, the current undervaluation of crypto assets may instead conceal even greater hidden risks.