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The recent power struggle in Washington is quietly rewriting the rules of the market. The tense relationship between the new president and the Federal Reserve Chair is not just political news but also directly related to every coin in your wallet.
On the surface, this appears to be merely a disagreement within leadership. But the deeper issue is that the independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges. Once the central bank becomes a political tool, the market will lose its final safe haven. Historical data shows that the politicization of central banks can directly trigger asset price volatility and chaotic capital flows.
This shift will impact your asset allocation through three pathways:
First, the disintegration of faith in the US dollar. The dollar's status as the global reserve currency hinges on the Fed's independent decision-making ability. Once this trust is broken, international capital will accelerate in search of alternatives. The risks of dollar depreciation and capital outflows will rise simultaneously.
Second, pressure on the US debt market. With a massive $34 trillion in US debt, if interest rate policies are influenced by political forces, debt costs could spiral out of control. The burden will not only fall on the US but will also send shockwaves through global markets.
Third, the acceleration of de-dollarization. Central banks around the world are adjusting their foreign exchange reserve structures, with gold holdings reaching new highs, and demand for alternative currencies like the RMB and euro increasing. The weakening of US dollar dominance is a long-term trend.
The key variable is the uncertainty surrounding the pace of interest rate cuts. In the short term, mixed policy signals will amplify market volatility. In the long run, restoring the Fed's independence will take time, potentially spanning several years.
The issue now is not just about how BTC will move, but about the fundamental rules of the entire financial system being rewritten. You need to reassess your asset allocation logic—those assumptions based on the Fed's stability over the past decade may no longer be valid.