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Today, the global markets staged an interesting "reverse dance"—the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stock futures all moved upward together, while gold, silver, and Bitcoin collectively declined at the open. However, by around 13:00 Beijing time, they started to rebound, and most of the losses were recovered.
Rather than simply focusing on the rise and fall, what’s more worth paying attention to today are the correlations behind the numbers among different markets.
Let's start with gold, silver, and Bitcoin—these three assets have now completely become "barometers of sentiment." When they are hammered right at the open, it’s like a warning shot from the market. Essentially, today's decline is just a fluctuation in sentiment, not a breakdown of the trend. The bears haven't actually pushed through heavy positions.
Looking at the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stock futures—things that usually don’t rise together—today they all went up simultaneously. This doesn’t really reflect prosperity. Instead, it’s more like the market’s anxiety speaking—everyone is buying insurance against future uncertainty but reluctant to leave the current ecosystem. This contradiction is reflected in asset prices.
The most interesting aspect is the structural change in the market. Over the past decade, the market has mostly cycled through three old routines: when the dollar is strong, everything falls; when the dollar is weak, everything rises; or a scenario where US dollar, US Treasuries, and gold rise together while risk assets fall. But today, half of the assets are surging upward, while the other half are plunging downward—completely defying the old script.
What does this indicate? It shows that the market is no longer listening to the same command. Different assets are starting to fight their own battles, each seeking its own anchor, with no unified narrative framework. Rather than a single day of gains and losses, it’s more like a test of "asset re-pricing"—the old correlations are breaking down, and a new system is quietly taking shape.